Category: Commercial

Have you ever wondered how it would be to fly like a king? One lucky person had a chance to find out. On January 8, 2023, an anonymous bidder ponied up $260,000 for a 1962 Lockheed 1329 JetStar. This was not just any JetStar. This treasure once belonged to the King of Rock & Roll, Elvis Presley. One peek inside is like being sucked into a 1970s vortex of opulence and luxury. Elvis spared no expense when speccing out the cabin of his last private jet. Red velvet chairs enveloped passengers as they ran their toes across matching red shag carpet. Guests could plug into headphone ports with audio controls and dispense their cigar ash into gold-plated ashtrays. Someone turns on the wall-mounted television and drinks are served from the galley, which also has a Kenmore microwave.

The Lockheed JetStar introduced the world to the corporate jet in 1957. Presley’s ‘62 model likely began flying upper managers back and forth to meetings and treating executives to golf outings on the weekend. They relaxed in tan leather seats and drank scotch from crystal glasses. While visiting airports with my dad in the 1970s and ’80s, all the private jets carried the same aesthetic: non-descript white fuselage, analog cockpits and tan interiors. The King was not having it. As new owners tend to do, Elvis put his stamp on this airplane.

All right, maintainers, listen up; this is for you. At some point in your career, a corporate jet owner will approach you in the hangar and say, “You know, NOU812 is going down for a gear replacement in June. I have been thinking about upgrading the cabin, and this looks like a good time to accomplish that. Get me some estimates, and I will think about it.” Congratulations, life just threw you a curve ball. Don’t sweat it, though; we have people who can help. I have scoured the country looking for some of the best and brightest to formulate a plan and for the new technology available now, which is mind-blowing. Let’s get into it.

Plan of Attack

Before we begin, you need to understand the magnitude of business aircraft interior refurbishment. Why is this important? Let’s break down the numbers with Fortune Business Insights, which recently stated that “the global business jet market size is anticipated to grow from $45.9 billion in 2024 to $66.97 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 5.4%.” Concerning the aftermarket, Fortune highlights that “fleet modernization programs by developed and emerging economies are anticipated to improve fleet capabilities and generate demand for new charter services with enhanced cabin interiors.” Cabin interiors are big business.

You will need a plan. Start with the client in mind. Remember that the jet owner and guests spend most of their time here. Sure, they will take a cursory look at the engines and may glance at the new flat-screen avionics in the cockpit, but the cabin is how they connect with their airplane. What do they want? I recently caught up with Janine Iannarelli, owner of Par Avion Ltd., an international aircraft marketing firm specializing in representing and acquiring pre-owned business jets. We discussed what aircraft owners today expect of their cabin layouts and amenities. She states that “updated cabin management systems [CMS] are a game changer. Especially among legacy aircraft, when entertainment systems become antiquated, it is not as simple as a plug-and-play solution for monitors, etc. Compatibility is the problem and migration to a newer generation CMS is more and more becoming the only solution.”

Sounds easy, huh? With a solid game plan, sufficient resources and maybe a little luck, you can satisfy the owner and not break the bank. Steve Martinez owns Aircraft Custom Interiors (ACI) in Dallas, Texas. Three miles west of Love Field (DAL). He and I recently connected and I asked him about managing an aircraft interior business. “Everything starts with an idea,” Martinez says. “Our job is to capture the owner’s idea and form that into a workable plan.” This typically begins about six months before the first panel is popped off the sidewall.

Meghan Welch, director of paint and interior sales at Elliott Aviation, echoes that sentiment. “Everything centers on the client relationship.” This week, she and I spoke for a few minutes about the customer experience, and she offered the following insight: “At Elliott Aviation, we go the extra mile to please the customer. I like to have them visit the Moline, Illinois, facility and get to the heart of their wants and needs.” In fact, she was hosting a client onsite the day after our meeting.

Third-party options are great, but only one source will do for some: the factory.

Textron has OEM solutions for overhauling your cabin. When asked about their offerings, Textron replied, “Our company-owned service centers offer factory-designed and engineered interior refurbishments and retrofits to meet the needs of our customers. Popular modifications include custom seating arrangements tailored to the owner’s preferences and LED lighting enhancements that create the perfect ambiance or ensure easy reading. These updates are often seamlessly integrated during major inspections or comprehensive avionics upgrades like the G5000 or Fusion installation.” With cabin MRO options, money and time, nothing is impossible.

Emerging Trends

Corporate aviation is constantly evolving. One of the most important advancements in emerging trends is connectivity. When I spoke with Textron, here is what they had to say: “Cabin connectivity. We understand the importance of staying connected to keep your business moving and turn the sky into your office. In today’s digital age, keeping devices charged is also essential. That’s why we have incorporated high-power USB charging ports into our aircraft and refurbishment options. Productivity and availability are at the forefront when you tap into the air-to-ground capability of Wi-Fi and satellite upgrades from our experts.”

Here are just a few of the connectivity upgrades Textron offers:

• Gogo AVANCE

• SmartSky Flagship

• Airtext+ Cabin Connectivity

At altitude, much of what happens in the cabin is dictated by equipment mounted outside on the aircraft fuselage, and that space is also evolving. Let’s just say there are new tools that allow E.T. to phone home and get a clearer signal. Dave Mellin is the director of public relations and communications for Gogo Business Aviation. Mellin was kind enough to chat with me and bring me up to speed on the latest aircraft connectivity. This is the tale of two satellite systems, old school geostationary (GEO) versus the new kid on the block low earth orbit (LEO).

GEO networks rely on satellites orbiting between 22K and 25K miles. Connecting to the network involves expensive heavy equipment traditionally found on the bigger corporate jets. It is limited by distance and is prone to latency and delay.

LEO systems operate 500 to 750 miles from Earth, which helps minimize the delay. Aircraft can deploy a smaller antenna and operate with smaller systems. The solid-state antenna has no moving parts. Until now, if you wanted in-flight connectivity, you had to compromise based on the aircraft size.

Gogo’s LEO global broadband experience uses the OneWeb satellite network and is designed specifically for business aviation. AVANCE is Gogo’s in-flight connectivity system. The website states: “Gogo AVANCE is not a traditional LRU. It’s a platform. An easy way to understand AVANCE is to think of it like you do Apple. Like Apple and its iOS: the value of the AVANCE platform comes not only from its features, but from its ability to be the central technology that connects to and grows with other tools, innovations, products, and services.” To sum it up, Mellin says the “AVANCE platform future-proofs your aircraft.”

Starlink is an emerging technology that delivers high-speed, low-latency internet access to passengers in flight. They are expanding their supported airframes and going to market through authorized dealers. Starlink’s Laser Mesh Network provides continuous service in areas far from SpaceX ground stations, including polar regions and the open ocean.

One of Starlink’s dealers is Duncan Aviation, the world’s largest privately owned business jet service provider. I fondly recall doing business with Duncan during my stint as a Rotable Exchange Coordinator at Professional Aviation Associates and then as a business owner at Aviation Enterprises, LLC. Last month, Duncan reported installing the company’s first Starlink in-flight internet connectivity system. Work on the Bombardier GL-XRS went smoothly; the Starlink fired right up, and the client “streamed three movies simultaneously and Facetimed with his wife.” The team accomplished the STC job in less than three weeks.

Corporate jet travel is an experience. In the decades since the events of September 11, 2001, commercial air travel has become a bit circus-like. Those with a substantial net worth are immune from such craziness, and rightfully so. Corporations use business jets to move executives, clients, and guests smoothly and efficiently. Time is money, and an hour lost standing in the TSA line is an hour lost closing a big deal. While corporate travel is a step above commercial, truly elite travel is on another level altogether. In this world, luxury is a way of life. Some of you have clients at this level and know precisely what I’m referring to.

Mindy Elizalde is the marketing director of luxury interior specialist Primadonna. Headquartered in Tucson, Arizona, Primadonna is an approved vendor for Gulfstream, allowing clients to upgrade mattress and bedding options. Primadonna’s recent acquisition of SJ Lipkins enables the company to offer a more robust product offering, and the Lipkins cabinet solutions integrate with Primadonna’s flatware and fine china. Lipkins’ signature line is its Cloudstone countertops. The company states they are “lightweight yet durable, solid yet flexible.”

F. LIST (F/LIST) from Thomasberg in Lower Austria, is a global interior supplier for business and private jets. They are expanding the horizon for interior spaces, including dynamic designs using sustainable materials. CEO Katharina List-Nagl recently stated, “For F/LIST, sustainability is at the heart of everything we do as a company, be it in terms of our processes, people, or the products themselves. It is almost impossible to think about a new product or service without considering sustainability.” In late 2023, Pilatus Aircraft Ltd. presented the first use of the bio-based material F/LAB Aenigma in the cabin of a business aircraft. A portion of the F/LIST press release states, “Inspired by F/LIST Shapeshifter, the F/LAB Aenigma opens a new chapter in aerospace materials, presenting an ingenious blend of cutting-edge technology and environmental responsibility.” Innovative companies like Pilatus Aircraft and F/LIST continue to push the industry forward.

Best Practices

Many elements drive the decision to gut the cabin of a corporate jet completely. One such element is a major maintenance event. Maintenance crews often need access to control cables, tubing, or components under the cabin floor or the sidewall. Wiring bundles, torque tubes, and all sorts of mechanical shenanigans are going on, safely tucked away from passengers and crew. When one of those components needs attention, everything in its way is coming out. Now seems a good time to update the cabin. The aircraft is down regardless, and the major maintenance covers most of the labor. Much like the advice I gave my engine shop customers during a sudden stoppage inspection, consider bumping up to an overhaul while insurance covers the labor if your engine has significant time on it.

Let’s head back to Lincoln and talk to Duncan Aviation again. It takes a team to navigate today’s business challenges, and one only gets there by deploying the best practices gleaned from years of effort. I had the pleasure of connecting with two of their refurbishment team, Steve Elofson and George Bajo, to discuss those challenges and how to overcome them. We learned that aircraft connectivity is at the top of many owners’ want lists when planning their new cabin design. Understanding how clients use their aircraft and tailoring a solution to fit that need is mission-critical.

When discussing building the service order, Elofson offered the following:

1. Ask the client where they wish to operate the aircraft. Is their intention to travel outside of the USA? Gogo is now using an air-to-ground (ATG) system, which is very cost-competitive and has good coverage in Canada and Alaska as well.

2. Determine what the client’s operating budget is. Duncan will quote a price for the physical hardware and installation labor, but the client must deal directly with the service providers for the monthly coverage. Each is different and has its pros and cons, such as satellite or unlimited data.

3. Cabin management systems (CMS) upgrades are typically tied to maintenance events, such as heavy checks, engine work, or avionics upgrades. If the crew has to access under the floor or sidewall, the interior seats, panels, and components are coming out anyway.

Once maintenance is in motion, it is imperative to remember that documentation and communication drive facilitation. I asked Bajo about how Duncan best manages this process. He stated that everything downstream is managed by a change order. If the maintenance technicians discover an issue, they document the squawk immediately. This applies to both airworthy and unairworthy conditions. These issues could be minor, like a cosmetic blemish that requires the owner’s attention or as serious as a crack in an aluminum structural component. These findings are posted on findings on the myDuncan website. There, clients may gain additional intel, view photographs of the affected area, and even approve the quote to keep maintenance in motion. This is invaluable as without approval to proceed, some maintenance activity halts. This could impact the lead time on delivering the aircraft. I would oftentimes have to remind my clients at the engine shop that the lead time begins and the time of approval is not the quote date. Duncan has an advantage because of its extensive capabilities; most needed solutions are in-house. Additionally, they deploy a vast arsenal of TSO, STC, PMA, and DER repairs for compliance. This is critical to remember, as deployment can be immediate for off-the-shelf products with approvals in place. If the client requires a custom solution that has yet to be approved, there will be an additional lead time until that happens. Even coffee pots carry FAA PMA approval.

Some aircraft owners are plugged into the latest bleeding-edge technology for their specific platform. Again, I recall my engine shop days when owners would hit me with new whizbang gadgets they read about on a blog post and want me to quote them on working that into their engine overhaul. Unfortunately, I had to break it to them, saying that their engine would lose its certified status unless new technology had FAA approval. Steve and I talked about this as well. He offered the following thoughts. You have to educate yourself to talk with the client about upgrade options. We spoke earlier about emerging technologies, like cabin power. Power outlets at seat locations can now accommodate USB, USBC, and MagSafe wireless charging. Lighting elements can set the mood for the cabin, cool vs warm. 4K display is now a reality. Passengers can consume content stored on their devices or stream it via apps on their devices. The newer technology allows for the use of cabin controls via an iPad with minimal lag.

Bajo and I finished up the conversation with the single most important factor to remember for maintenance providers when managing a cabin interior refurbishment project. He called it: “Get ahead of the jet.” With aerospace supply chain lead times as they are, staying ahead of the game is essential. DOMs track aircraft times and cycles like their life depends on it because it does! It is imperative to know what is coming down the line. Engines, landing gear, and other aircraft components require service at specific flights/times/cycles. By working ahead of the jet, you can advise the owner of when would be an excellent time to set the aircraft down for refurbishment. The time to pick out seat color and material is NOT when they are pulling the seats out. Settle that well in advance.

I closed my research with James Logue, the director of maintenance for Latitude 33 Aviation in Carlsbad, California. We reminisced about the days when business jets were limited to basic Falcon 20s with tan interiors. When the private owner or corporation finished with them, they went to other countries or spent the rest of their days hauling checks. “Things are different these days,” Logue began. “A few years ago, a 15+ year old aircraft would probably finish its life out with the interior it currently had. There was not an ROI to support a full interior refurbishment.” Now that private travel is on the rise, and there is insufficient inventory to meet those needs, older aircraft are holding their value longer. “And now, it makes sense to refresh the cabin,” Logue continues, “and with much of the older factory installed components obsolete, it is necessary to bring the cabin current.” When asked about the decision-making process, Logue says, “The aircraft mission drives the decision.” It is critical to understand how the client will use the airplane and plan accordingly. If you want a deeper dive, check out the Lattitude 33 Aviation article ‘A Guide to Aircraft Interior Refurbishment.’

Former NTSB and FAA investigator Jeff Guzzetti explains how shortcutting the procedure to rig the elevators of a commuter plane led to a tragic accident shortly after takeoff.

As a former aircraft accident investigator, I can attest to the fact that the incorrect rigging of flight controls has led to numerous in-flight emergencies, accidents, and even deaths. Maintenance personnel who serviced or checked the controls did not recognize that the surfaces were moving in the wrong direction. In some cases, the mechanics who performed this work were highly experienced. Anyone can make mistakes, but these mistakes usually lead to tragic circumstances.

Perhaps the most notorious of these types of events occurred on January 8, 2003, when Air Midwest — doing business as US Airways Express flight 5481 — crashed shortly after takeoff from Charlotte, North Carolina. The two pilots and all 19 passengers on board the Beech 1900D turboprop commuter were killed. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) investigation into this crash was intense, complex and comprehensive, and it yielded many lessons learned for airline maintenance professionals.

At the time of the accident, I had recently been promoted out of the NTSB’s Major Investigation Division, so I missed the opportunity to lead the “go-team” in Charlotte. However, in my new role as the head of all NTSB field offices, I closely monitored the investigation and supervised the investigation of a second Beech 1900D mis-rigging event that occurred nine months later.

The Investigation

The NTSB arrived at the Charlotte crash site a few hours after the accident, and their first order of business was to retrieve the “black boxes.” An initial audition of the cockpit voice recorder (CVR) revealed trouble as soon as the landing gear was raised upon liftoff. For the next 26 seconds, the airplane pitched up, stalled, and descended into the side of a hangar, igniting a massive fireball (see graphics 1 and 2).

The final word recorded on the CVR was from someone in the passenger cabin who yelled “Daddy” — a stark and emotional indication of the potential consequences of improper maintenance.

Information from the flight data recorder (FDR) showed that the airplane was rotating nose-up after takeoff, even though the flight crew was pushing the control column fully forward and trimming the airplane in the nose-down direction. This prompted investigators to focus on the pitch control system of the Beech 1900D, which consisted of cables, pulleys and bellcranks connecting the cockpit control columns at the front of the airplane to the elevator surfaces at its tail (see graphic 3).

The pitch control system also included two turnbuckles that allowed mechanics to adjust the position and cable tension of the system (see graphic 4). Examination of the turnbuckles as found in the wreckage revealed that the nose-down turnbuckle, which measured 7.30 inches in length, was extended 1.76 inches more than the nose-up turnbuckle, which measured 5.54 inches in length (see graphics 5). By quickly conducting a survey of its fleet of 42 Beech 1900D airplanes, the airline discovered that these measurements were not normal. The survey results indicated that the nose-down turnbuckle was extended, on average, only 0.04 inch less than the nose-up turnbuckle, rather than the 1.76-inch difference noted in the wreckage.

Investigators quickly learned that the airplane had undergone a “Detail Six” or D6 maintenance check two days prior to the accident at Air Midwest’s West Virginia maintenance station (see graphics 6). FDR data, ground test results, and aerodynamic analysis showed that, before the D6 check, the airplane’s full range of downward elevator travel was available. However, after the D6 check, the downward elevator travel was limited to about seven degrees rather than the 14-15 degrees specified in the Beech 1900D Airliner Maintenance Manual (AMM).

Part of the D6 check involved checking the tension of the elevator control system cables and adjusting the tension if necessary. The mechanic who performed this work had not previously performed it on a Beech 1900D. As a result, he was receiving on-the-job training (OJT) from a quality assurance (QA) inspector for the tasks associated with that part of the D6 check.

The mechanic determined that the airplane’s cables needed to be adjusted because their average tension was too low. He stated that he adjusted the cables and performed some, but not all, of the steps of the elevator rigging procedure. However, whenever cable tension adjustments are made, the entire elevator control system rigging procedure needs to be performed — not just those steps that apply to cable tensioning.

While NTSB could not precisely determine the changes that were made to the elevator control system during the D6 check to restrict the elevator travel, they discovered during ground testing a scenario that was consistent with FDR data from the accident airplane and the physical measurements of the turnbuckles. Specifically, when the rig pin for the aft bellcrank was not removed and the cable tension was released, and then the rig pin for the forward bellcrank was installed aft of the bellcrank arm, adjustments to the turnbuckles resulted in a nose-up turnbuckle length of 5.12 inches and a nose-down turnbuckle length of 7.70 inches. After the aft rig pin was removed, the test airplane’s elevator moved to 7.7 deg. nose-down.

Skipped Steps and Inadequate OJT

Five of the six mechanics who were on duty on the night of the D6 check had worked at the West Virginia facility for less than eight weeks, and none of them had completed training for the D6 check. The mechanic assigned by the foreman to perform the elevator control cable check was selected for the task because he had previously accomplished flight control rigging work on another type of airplane (DeHavilland DHC-8). The QA inspector, who was providing the mechanic’s OJT, stated that he did not think he needed to closely supervise the mechanic because of his previous flight control rigging experience.

The mechanic stated that, before he inspected the elevator control system, the foreman helped him locate the access panel for the forward bellcrank rig pin and the elevator cable turnbuckles. The mechanic also stated that he and the QA inspector discussed the low cable tensions, the need to adjust the tensions, and the steps that could be skipped. The QA inspector then left to attend to other duties, and another mechanic held the turnbuckles while he adjusted them. The QA inspector returned after the rigging work was completed to observe the final check of the elevator control system.

The QA inspector stated that, after he verified that the forward bellcrank rig pin had been inserted, he left the mechanic unsupervised during the elevator control cable inspections and turnbuckle adjustments. The QA inspector indicated that he had to provide OJT to another mechanic and also perform a borescope inspection on an engine.

The Beech 1900D elevator control system rigging procedure did not include provisions for adjusting cable tension as an isolated task. However, the mechanic decided to adjust the cables as an isolated task and, as a result, did not follow each step included in the rigging procedure. The QA inspector was aware that the mechanic was selectively performing steps from the rigging procedure and that he was only adjusting cable tension. In fact, the inspector stated that he did not think the manufacturer intended for mechanics to follow the entire rigging procedure and that the entire procedure had not been followed when past cable tension adjustments were made.

The NTSB opined that the insufficient training and supervision resulted in the mechanic making mistakes that led to the incorrect rigging and the restricted downward elevator travel. If the QA inspector had provided better training and supervision, the likelihood of such errors would have been minimized.

Another Beech 1900D Mis-rigging

Then, on October 16 of that same year, another Beech 1900D was found to have mis-rigged elevator controls. This time, the airplane was operated by CommutAir as Continental Connection flight 8718. As the airplane accelerated for takeoff from Albany, New York, the captain noted that the elevator control was jammed, prompting him to abort the takeoff. Fortunately, no one was hurt, but the Major Investigations Division asked that I dispatch one of my field office investigators to initiate an incident investigation, given the limelight of the fatal Charlotte accident nine months prior.

Examination of the incident airplane revealed that when the elevator trim wheel in the cockpit was positioned to neutral, the elevator trim was actually in the full nose-down position. The incident flight was the first flight after maintenance the day before, in which the elevator trim wheel was removed and reinstalled. The NTSB discovered that part of the work performed on the airplane included removal and replacement of a throttle pin. To accomplish that procedure, the maintenance technician had removed the elevator trim wheel. However, he did not index the elevator trim wheel before removing it, and reinstalled it incorrectly.

To make matters worse, neither the maintenance technician nor the QA inspector performed a functional check of the elevator trim system following the maintenance. Also, NTSB was shocked to learn that AAM had no published procedure regarding the removal and reinstallation of the elevator trim wheel.

Causes, Factors, and Lessons Learned

The NTSB determined the probable cause of the Flight 5481 disaster in Charlotte to be the airplane’s loss of pitch control during takeoff that resulted from the incorrect rigging of the elevator system, compounded by the airplane’s aft center of gravity, which was substantially aft of the certified aft limit. The NTSB also cited numerous “contributing factors,” such as the airline’s lack of oversight of the work being performed at the West Virginia maintenance station, and its inadequate maintenance procedures and documentation. They also cited the QA inspector’s failure to detect the incorrect rigging of the elevator control system, and the FAA’s lack of oversight of the airline’s maintenance program and its weight and balance program. The NTSB issued 14 recommendations to the FAA related to air carrier maintenance programs, including one to prohibit inspectors from performing required inspection item inspections on any maintenance task for which the inspector provided on-the-job training to the mechanic who accomplished the task.

The legacy of Flight 5481 is its clarion call to all maintenance personnel to prevent mis-rigging accidents by heeding the following items:

• Become familiar with the normal directional movement of the controls and surfaces before disassembling the systems. It is easier to recognize “abnormal” if you are familiar with what “normal” looks like.

• Carefully follow manufacturers’ instructions to ensure that the work is completed as specified. Always refer to up-to-date instructions and manuals — including airworthiness directives — when performing a task.

• Be aware that some maintenance information, especially for older airplanes, may be nonspecific. Ask questions of another qualified person if something is unfamiliar.

• Remember that well-meaning, motivated, experienced technicians can make mistakes: fatigue, distraction, stress, complacency, and pressure to get the job done are some common factors that can lead to human errors. Learn about and adhere to sound risk management practices to help prevent common errors.

• Ensure that the aircraft owner or pilot is thoroughly briefed about the work that has been performed. This may prompt them to thoroughly check the system during preflight or help them successfully troubleshoot if an in-flight problem occurs.

Be careful what you ask for. During the pandemic, aviation industry leaders were desperate for traffic to come back. Now it has. Indeed, revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) are forecast to be 4.2 percent above 2019 levels in 2024 and are likely to keep growing for years after that. Ditto for commercial demand.

But there is a sting in the tail. There are not enough new aircraft to support growing demand, and there is a backlog of more than 16,000 narrow- and widebody aircraft. Challenges with aircraft production rates and new engine technologies have exacerbated the supply shortage.

To cope, there are two major approaches.

The first approach is to keep current aircraft in service; retirement rates are projected to be about 24 percent lower from 2024-26 compared to the decade before the pandemic. Keeping aircraft in the air longer will require more maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services to engines and airframes. These are expensive and getting more so: MRO costs have risen sharply over the last five years.

Moreover, this effort could cause ripple effects throughout the value chain. For example, fewer retirements will limit the availability of the used serviceable materials (USM) that are often used to lower MRO costs. Meanwhile, aircraft lessors are responding by either placing aircraft at significantly higher lease rates or extending at attractive rates while avoiding what would otherwise be financially meaningful remarking and retrofit downtime.

Current market conditions will promote continued MRO growth for the next decade, with spend rising to $135 billion by 2034. During the first few years, growth will likely come primarily from the high demand for maintenance on older fleets. Engine MRO could account for the largest share of MRO spending, with demand expected to be particularly strong in the short term as previous generation engines enter major shop visit cycles.

After that, there will likely be a slight growth dip, due to the impact of lower aircraft production rates and deliveries from 2019 and into the pandemic years. Over the whole period, and beyond, MRO will grow simply because the aviation industry is. But there could be wrinkles.

Specifically, elevated fleet ages and the commensurate increase in maintenance needs for older aircraft are not likely to persist. From 2028 onward, we estimate that aircraft retirement levels will return to historic levels — about 2.7 percent of the fleet per annum — bringing down the average fleet age from today’s historic high of 13.3 years to 12.3 years by 2034.

In addition, airlines regularly transport cargo in the belly of passenger aircraft. During the pandemic, to keep trade flowing, cargo airlines converted passenger aircraft to freighters, which helped increase MRO revenues for passenger-to-freighter (P2F) specialists. As international belly cargo capacity continues to recover, P2F conversions have started to fall and this is expected to continue.

The second approach to narrow the gap is to build and deliver more planes. This is beginning to happen. The supplychain disruptions that have hindered production are expected to ease over the next two to three years; we expect total deliveries will increase an average of 4 percent a year from 2024-34. Fleet growth will be slightly slower than passenger travel demand, however, because new aircraft being delivered are larger gauge than the ones being retired.

The introduction of next-generation aircraft and engines will likely influence MRO spending. Many deliveries will consist of aircraft with composite airframes or wings, as well as next-generation engines. New engines entering the market are experiencing more frequent maintenance visits because of the technical and production quality issues that are common with innovation. But once these are solved, the engines are expected to have comparable or lower maintenance costs than their predecessors. Moreover, even though fleet size is growing, demand for airframe services will likely remain flat, because the composite structures of next-generation aircraft require less maintenance than their mostly metallic predecessors.

The picture, then, is multifaceted: more aircraft will mean more demand for MRO services, but each aircraft will likely need less.

MRO providers today are focused on servicing aging fleets, which account for the majority of demand for their services. But they must also build capabilities for the future. A forthcoming McKinsey survey, for example, found that few MRO providers had integrated digital and analytics at scale throughout the organization. Partly for regulatory reasons, the industry is surprisingly reliant on paper-based record keeping, which makes collating and analyzing data difficult.

Digital transformations are not easy; indeed, most struggle. Preparing now is the best way to get positioned for long-term success.

Vik Krishnan is a senior partner in McKinsey & Company’s San Francisco office. Daniel Leblanc is a partner in McKinsey & Company’s Dallas office.