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Andy Nixon, founder of MRO Insider says their online portal is an easy to use resource for sending your aircraft maintenance/upgrades needs out for quote to multiple facilities at once. Wait a short while and multiple sources could come back with their quote saving much leg work and time.

Then, with quotes in easy-to-compare format, it is simple to weigh the different options available. Nixon says it is imperative that technicians and management be able to compare hard data between quotes and MRO Insider allows this to happen. Service providers pay a subscription fee to have access to the requests for bid.

“Owner/operators can select the aircraft in their fleet, choose which service is needed, specify a timeframe, and can send equipment lists, maintenance tracking documents or photos,” says Nixon. Once submitted, service facilities subscribed to the MRO Insider network are notified of an RFQ (request for quote). They log in and can either request additional information from the owner/operator or submit a quote. Each maintenance facility has a profile page with photos and customer reviews with the main goal of the website being to improve transparency and efficiency in the maintenance quoting process for aircraft owner/operators.

The company launched in 2017 and has grown quickly since then. In February the company announced the registration of more than 500 corporate aircraft on their maintenance quoting marketplace. Think of it like Amazon, where you can search for a particular product and look at numerous options before purchasing, from new to all levels of used and from multiple vendors. Rather than having to make multiple calls to numerous shops to price compare yourself, wait for return calls, ensure work-scopes are the same and then decide, MRO Insider says it does all this with the click of the return key, once the parameters of your job are entered into the request for quote (RFQ).

With quotes in hand, users can follow up with individual companies with further questions. Nixon says the process brings pilots, owners, operators, and MRO providers together and will improve the customer experience.

Nixon, from Michigan, comes from an aviation family. From his great grandfather, to his grandfather – with whom he still flies today – to his cousin who started a kit plane company, it seemed inevitable that he would end up in aviation. He was always more interested in the business side of the industry and says he came up with the idea when he was the director of sales and marketing for Toledo jet. “Basically the whole driving force was, I was quoting work. I was going out and seeing these customers in our area. And I was just getting pummeled with marketing because we didn’t really have a budget. I mean, people were flying over our head to Cleveland!”

The idea he had was to keep smaller facilities who may be better able to service specific needs at an affordable price, “stage front.” “And so that’s how it came about. It is just a way for [them] to get exposure and get a look at customers that we’re driving to the website or the app, that they might not normally be able to reach,” Nixon says. “And, I thought it’d be cool to start my own business,” he laughed at the naivety of the thought, now that he has the work of three years behind him.

“The larger companies, they have 40 salespeople running around. We’re after the people that, you know, have two salespeople that can’t always be out and about,” Nixon says. “The smaller shops sometimes have the ability with personnel and tooling to complete the jobs and their work quality is excellent, but they don’t have any kind of a marketing team and so they’re losing out jobs,” Bischoff says. Bischoff adds, “I think that’s one thing that we’re really providing to shops, is that when they have the capabilities, but they don’t have the front end stuff like a large marketing team, we’re able to help them get those customers. And those customers may even be closer than somebody else they’ve used and they may never have even heard of them.”

In the beginning the company focused on scheduled maintenance. “That was kind of our core business,” Nixon says. The website was basic and didn’t even have hard coding Nixon says. But customers and industry mentors helped the company hone their product. Customers told them they didn’t even have to email and call. “People asked us, ‘Can you just make it ping out to people that are in the area?’ We said sure! That’s the basis of our app for AOG and detailing and parts, is that it’ll broadcast out to anybody in a 300 mile radius,” he says. “Users put in a description and boom, there it goes. So we let the market determine what’s priced, basically. We just released a messaging feature in it too, so both parties can communicate kind of like WhatsApp or Facebook Messenger, back and forth with each other. And then at that point, we pretty much step out.” They then ask for a review at the end, again similar to an Amazon review.

Nixon says they keep the process simple and on the up and up. “We don’t do finder’s fees, we don’t do kickbacks, we don’t share customer data. So that’s what really separates us from our competitors.” He adds that they refuse to give out the information which he says “drives a shops nuts. They don’t even have to put in tail number – they put in nicknames because sometimes bigger companies just don’t want people to know who it is [making the RFQ],” Nixon says.

“We really pushed to mobile because everything is going that way. We stripped down from the website and made the app really user friendly,” says Perri Bischoff, director of marketing. “It’s simple. It’s got an easy user interface. We took a lot of feedback from not only shops, and owners and operators, but even other people about what they liked and disliked about apps within other industries. What made them work? What kept them going back to it and using it? And so the app was developed with two years-worth of feedback off the website.”

Some of the feedback the company was getting was about the time spent just chatting with sales people from service providers. “Probably the biggest thing that we hear is, you know, ‘I need this quote, I’ve got six airplanes I’m managing. And the guy wants to tell me about his fishing trip for 45 minutes! And then I don’t get the quote. I’ve got to follow up with them,’” he relays. Operators were saying they couldn’t get quotes the same day and there was a lot of wheel-spinning. “I was dumbfounded that all salesmen didn’t respond the same day and get things done as quickly as possible. And so that was our biggest surprise,” Nixon says and where they focus – getting the answers quickly.

A relatively new use just came up. The scenario was a Citation 10 operator needed to replace or check something on the vertical stabilizer. They needed a scissor lift to do a job. “They did not have a way to get up there. So they pinged out via our app that they were looking for a scissor lift in Austin, at the airport there and they were able to rent it from a 135 operator actually that’s on the field. They don’t do outside maintenance, but they were willing to run it out to them to use it,” Nixon explains. “So that’s just that whole peer-to-peer building this community and trying to help out the operators well as the providers, as much as we can.” After that first success, the company says they will expand this capability.

The company also hopes to add a type of virtual DOM to the service at some point in the future. “We’re going to be doing and ask an expert- type, virtual DOM kind of a thing. Basically, if somebody is AOG or has a question, whether it’s a big time DOM or it’s a part 91 guy that has a chief pilot handling stuff, they can message and reach out to these experts that we’ll have loaded on the app with their picture and description of what air frames are comfortable with,” Nixon explains. “We’re going to be a go to source. You can whip out your phone and ping them and say, Hey, I have this giant inspection coming up on my aircraft. “Is there anything I need to look for, can you help me manage the project? Can you check the invoice when it’s done, all of that stuff will then be available here shortly at their fingertips.”

Asked if the pandemic has impacted their business, Nixon says no. “We’re still a startup company, but we’re up 43 percent from this time last year. So, we’ve had a big increase. And then with the app coming out, we’ve seen business go up. One of our bigger operators, their business went up as a result of COVID. They never stopped flying and they actually increased the number of aircraft they were managing. And so we have had nothing but positive stuff so far happened,” Nixon says.

Nixon is especially pleased when he can help put someone “on the map” as he calls it. For example, he mentioned a small facility in Dallas whose customers rave about them. [The owner] used to work for Bombardier and went off on his own. He does Learjet stuff. His customers rave about him: honest, transparent. But he’s got to get his name and his brand out there. We just got him signed up last week. And so we like discovering those shops,” Nixon says.

The company is also committed to some social issues like encouraging young people to get involved in aviation, potentially working with inmates at local prisons and they have begun a carbon offset tree planting program. They have some property in Northern Michigan a source for ordering oak trees. “Every single RFQ that goes through our website we add to our list of tree planting. This fall we’re going to do a company retreat and we’re all going go plant the trees. At some point we would like to include some of our other shops or operators that want to be a part of that. I think we’re the only people that are hands-on doing something like that in business aviation,” Nixon says.

Nixon feels their only competition is the old mind set of doing things the same old way. “We are definitely competing against the old way of doing things. But, everything is going digital and mobile. And we’re not going to see that go away obviously now, especially with the pandemic,” he believes. He says the pandemic has accelerated the trend.

The company says they don’t want to do away with the relationship aspect of the business, however. “We’re like the conduit to accelerate people’s relationships. We’re not trying to completely replace it. We’re just helping you get there faster,” says Bischoff. This relationship aspect is the impetus for MRO Insider to partner with Wyvern to offer a Q SMS program to smaller shops. “It will be another way for us to validate who’s on our network,” Nixon says of the process. They are working with their first client on this partnership to establish an affordable audit program designed for those smaller shops. “One of our big goals is that everybody will be on this Q SMS. We want everybody to know that if you come to MRO Insider, this is what it is like, it’s a boutique of these vetted shops with top-notch people,” Nixon says.

If my 30-year career in accident investigation has taught me more about them than anything, it’s that accidents typically happen at night, on weekends or during a time that is most inconvenient to the investigator. However, I had never personally experienced the axiom of “Bad Things Come in Threes” in my profession…that is until a late Friday afternoon four years ago when a FedEx MD-10 freighter crashed during landing in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. (See photos 1 and 2 below).

The call came in a little after 6:00 pm on October 28, 2016 as I was preparing reports in my office at FAA Headquarters. I was already exhausted from the previous night’s media circus at LaGuardia Airport ­— complete with an NTSB go-team launch — in which a chartered Boeing 737-700 airplane carrying Vice Presidential candidate Mike Pence overran runway 22 during landing. That was “Bad Thing” number 1. I sent one of my senior investigators to accompany the go-team and scrambled to find more FAA inspectors in the New York area to participate in the investigation.

Given its visibility, the LaGuardia 737 event was enough to keep the entire FAA Accident Investigation Division busy on this particular Friday. Authorities even wanted to get personal-injury-miami.com lawyers personal injury in florida on the case for a holistic approach to investigations. But then another news flash came in mid-afternoon about an American Airlines B767 that experienced a massive uncontained engine disk burst during an aborted takeoff. The engine explosion prompted a fuel-fed fire and an evacuation of 170 passengers onto the runway at Chicago’s O’Hare Airport. This was major accident (i.e. Bad Thing) number 2, and I launched another FAA investigator from my office to assist that go-team.

Two hours later, as I was preparing to brief the FAA brass about Chicago, the FAA Communication Center specialist called me on my cell phone to report that a FedEx MD-10 had just crashed on runway 10L at Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood International Airport. “That’s not very funny,” I told the specialist. “I’m not joking, Jeff,” he replied. “It’s on the news right now. The gear collapsed and the airplane is on fire.” A quick internet search validated Bad Thing no. 3. As I dispatched a third investigator to accompany the third NTSB go-team launch in less than 24 hours, I knew it was going to be another intimate vending-machine dinner with my boss who was also working late.

According to this source, no one was killed or seriously injured in these three major airline accidents — a testament to the system safety of commercial aviation in the U.S. Most people on the flight had brampton first aid training with c2c, which helped them save each other’s lives. In the end, the cause of the LaGuardia 737 overrun was pure operational, the cause of the American 767 engine failure in Chicago was pure manufacturing, and the cause of the FedEx MD-10 in Florida was pure maintenance. In keeping with the focus of this publication, this story addresses the third accident and how the investigation had its own set of “Bad Things that Come in Threes.”

In the Heat of the Moment

The NTSB go-team arrived in Ft. Lauderdale the morning after the accident with the lead investigator and five “group chairman” specialists in operations, human performance, aircraft structures, systems and maintenance records. My job back at the FAA mother ship was to support the lead FAA investigator by coordinating the participation of other inspectors, engineers and pilots to make sure all of the NTSB groups had FAA representation.

Adding to the drama were news videos and photos showing a massive fire on the left wing at the time of the accident. As the flight crew was preparing to jump out of the cockpit with a rope, the nearly empty left main fuel tank exploded (see photos 3 and 4) and sent a giant piece of wing skin skyward after the exterior surfaces were heated by burning fuel. Fortunately, the two pilots evacuated the airplane and sustained only minor injuries.

Examination of the runway markings, airframe damage, pilot reports, and surveillance video indicated that the left main landing gear (MLG) strut fractured at the main outer cylinder during rollout about 10 seconds after what everyone described as a normal touchdown. The gear snapped off and was dragged below the left wing causing a mangled hot mess (see photo 5). Once investigators could extract the MLG strut, they could see that the fracture initiated from a tiny crack inside the “air filler valve bore hole” (see photo 7, next page). The hole provides a means for maintenance crews to inflate or “charge” the landing gear shock strut with nitrogen after filling the strut with hydraulic fluid (see diagram 6). The fracture surfaces were carefully excised from the wreckage and sent to the NTSB’s Materials Laboratory for further examination (see photo 8). More about that later.

The Third MD-10 Gear Collapse Event

The second event occurred on July 28, 2006, also in Memphis, when the left MLG of a MD-10 collapsed during landing rollout, also prompting a fire. That investigation found that corrosion pitting with a depth of 0.002-inch inside the air filler valve bore led to fatigue cracking. The Board determined that the cracking occurred due to “the presence of stray nickel plating” in the valve hole, and that “inadequate maintenance procedures” during overhaul led to nickel plating entering the air filler valve hole. A decade later, I found myself talking to my former colleagues at NTSB about a third similar MD-10 event in Ft. Lauderdale. What the hell happened? Were these all related? Did we miss something. More importantly, can we prevent the Fourth Bad Thing?

Clues in the Maintenance Records

We quickly learned that, as a result of the accident in 2006, the FAA issued Airworthiness Directive (AD) no. 2008-09-17 requiring that operators perform a video scope inspection of the air filler valve bore for the presence of stray nickel or chrome plating deposits and also to perform corrective actions per a Boeing Alert Service Bulletin. The required inspections and actions were mandated to be completed within 6 months for those MD-10 freighter airplanes with MLG cylinders that have accumulated more than 7,200 flight cycles.

A review of the maintenance records for the Ft. Lauderdale MD-10 airplane revealed it was manufactured in 1972 and had accumulated 84,589 hours of flight hours. The most recent overhaul of the left MLG occurred about 8 years before the accident by a repair station in California. The records of the overhaul indicated that AD 2008-09-17 was performed and that no stray nickel or chrome was found in the air filler valve bore.

Investigators came across another issue in the maintenance records. The time since installation of the overhauled MLG was 10,246 flight hours, 5,653 cycles and 3,133 days (8.58 years). At the time of the accident, the MLG overhaul limit at FedEx was 9 years or 30,000 flight hours, whichever occurs first which meant that the time remaining until the next overhaul was 152 days. However, Boeing recommended overhauling the MLG every 8 years or 7,500 flight cycles, whichever occurs first. FedEx stated that the company adopted the 9-year overhaul limit because it that is what was used by the previous owner/operator, and they did not have any documentation or data analysis to support the longer overhaul interval. If FedEx had not adopted an overhaul limit that exceeded the manufacturer’s recommendation, the fatigue crack in the MLG cylinder likely would have been detected and addressed before it could progress to failure.

Metallurgical Findings

Meanwhile, NTSB metallurgists examined fragments of the left MLG cylinder (see photos 8 and 9), and discovered that the fracture surface showed an overstress fracture emanating from a small thumbnail crack located at the radius between the cylinder’s inner diameter surface and the air filler valve bore surface (see photo 10). The thumbnail crack was consistent with a preexisting crack that progressed to failure and that its initiation was consistent with fatigue as exhibited by fatigue striations (i.e. “beach marks”) observed during microscopic examination (see photo 11). Once the crack progressed to a critical length, the left MLG cylinder fractured in overstress due to the normal loads imposed during landing.

The metallurgists also determined that the crack initiation site had a corrosion pit, and they found no indications of nickel, chrome, or cadmium plating at the radius or along the smooth sections of the air filler valve bore as stipulated by maintenance instructions The NTSB opined that the absence of coating could lead to corrosion pitting over time, and that corrosion pitting or mechanical damage the coating incurred during maintenance could lead to fatigue cracking. However, the NTSB could not determine whether cadmium plating applied during the last overhaul did not properly bond to the bore surface, was removed during maintenance, or wore off over time because there is no routine procedure to inspect this area during on-wing maintenance activities.

The Probable Cause and Three Good Things

At the conclusions of the investigation, the Board ruled that the accident cause was due to Three Bad Things:

(1) The failure of the left MLG due to fatigue cracking that initiated at a corrosion pit.

(2) The absence of a required protective cadmium coating that led to the formation of the corrosion pit.

(3) the operator’s exceedance of the manufacturer’s recommended overhaul limit for the MLG without sufficient data and analysis to ensure crack detection before it progressed to failure.

But there is a happy ending to this story, other than the fact that no one was killed or injured in this accident. As a result of the investigation, “Three Good Things” occurred:

(1) FedEx inspected all MLGs in its MD-10 fleet (27 in-service airplanes and 54 MLG assemblies). Sixteen cylinders were identified as “concerns” and were permanently removed from service.

(2) FedEx reverted to an 8-year overhaul limit for MLG cylinders, as recommended by the manufacturer, after reviewing its maintenance program,

(3) The overhaul shop that performed the last MLG cylinder overhaul introduced a tank dip method for plating the air filler valve bores, which provides improved uniformity, adherence, and coverage over the brush plating method.

In this case, the third time was “a charm” that was used to prevent a fourth “Bad Thing.”

Omaha’s Warren Buffett sold out of the airline sector at a loss at the beginning of May. Buffett is quoted as saying he thinks the airline business has changed and has a hazy future. Investors took the move as a bad omen. Buffett usually touts the long view of buying and holding. Revenues are predicted to drop by half or more, according to the International Air Transportation Association (IATA). Airlines are retiring fleets considered not a good fit for their current operational needs. American has officially retired the Embraer E190 and Boeing 767 fleets and the airline is speeding up the retirement of its Boeing 757s and Airbus A330-300s. Planned gradual phase outs of the Boeing 747 and Airbus A380 by airlines are over — they’re out. Delta announced they will retire their B777 fleet. Some say these retirements are not as worrisome as they may seem and were already planned for anyway. Southwest Airlines says it is losing $30-35 million per day and predicts that to continue through June. American Airlines reports they have stanched their daily losses to $50 million per day. All the airlines are now in survival mode as opposed to minimize loss mode. Delta Air Lines CEO Ed Bastian says he believes the industry will take two or three years to recover. All of this leads us to our current situation in MRO. Everything starts from here and will impact MRO. Read on to learn how MRO leaders and industry consultants around the world think we are doing now and what lies ahead.

Ted Colbert, President and Chief Executive Officer Boeing Global Services

What is the state of our industry?

The commercial aviation industry is truly facing an unprecedented set of challenges, and that means a significant near-term market contraction for commercial fleet maintenance and services. It’s a challenge like nothing we’ve faced before, but I remain optimistic that a recovery will come. The work we do is too important for people and communities, for business and trade, and for the security and interconnectedness of our world.

Airline customers have an immediate need for fleet storage and re-activation support, as well as engineering support to adapt passenger airplanes into freight transport configurations.

Boeing is providing up-to-date technical information to ensure appropriate preservation and protection measures are in place for storage, which is the foundation for service re-entry.

We’re also coordinating closely with our customer support team to help reconfigure passenger airplanes into freighters, as fewer passenger flights mean less freight is being transported in the belly of the airplanes during those flights. This continues a trend for greater market demand for freighter aircraft.

Helping customers adjust their operations in favor of cargo transport is one of the ways our industry is helping support the fight against the pandemic by delivering much-needed medical supplies and equipment to support the healthcare industry.

Digital offerings also continue to emerge as critical enablers for airlines as they adjust to future market demands and develop leaner operations. Many airlines and maintenance operators will look to digital solutions to help increase efficiency and reduce operating costs as air travel slowly resumes. Navigation and charting software will be important for new route structure planning, and crew rostering and planning software will similarly support resized operations staffing.

Looking forward, we also see used serviceable materials (USM) playing an important role in supporting the industry’s increase in operations, as consumption of refurbished parts is expected to increase. Many commercial aircraft and engines will not be going back into service and will transition into the teardown market. As a result, USM creates an opportunity to apply our platform lifecycle experience to help airlines and MROs reduce costs while maintaining operational efficiency. And we’re ensuring that we have the resources and inventory to support our customers’ increased demand for quality USM parts, both Boeing proprietary and non-Boeing parts.

Even as we grapple with this challenging near-term outlook in commercial aviation and position ourselves for future changes in the industry, our team is stepping up our support for and partnership with government customers. We remain focused on supporting their missions and fleet readiness levels through our integrated service capabilities. One important focus area is our work in partnership with our customers to create a more predictive maintenance environment through the application of data analytics.

These are challenging times, but I’m proud of how our industry has come together to holistically address the need for new technologies to enhance safety, collaborating in areas where we can to innovate and find creative solutions that will help the flying public to return to the skies at levels akin to what we saw prior to the crisis. This shared goal is ultimately how our industry will weather this storm.

Martin Friis-Petersen, SVP MRO Programs MTU Aero Engines

The aviation industry is in uncharted waters. The industry has gone from boom times with billions in profits to the brink of disaster in the course of a few weeks. What is your company doing to weather this unprecedented time?

During March and April, we ramped down operations to emergency staffing level at our facilities in Hannover and Berlin for a three week period. This was both to protect our employees but also as a result of difficulties in the supply chain. We are extremely proud of our team who maintained minimum service levels, carried out AOG services and received and delivered engines and parts during the ramp down. This minimized disruption for customers, in particular those operating vital cargo transport.

We are now ramping back up to a #SmartNewNormal. We intend to flexibly adjust our MTU Maintenance shop capacities to meet demand going forward. As we have the largest engine MRO portfolio worldwide and service many programs at multiple locations, this ensures our availability to service our diverse customer base and meet their needs and requirements. We are monitoring the supply chain situation, COVID-19 developments and different regional trends daily.

What are your predictions about how the aviation maintenance industry will recover?

As the situation is continually evolving, this is hard to predict exactly. However, it is notable the flight data has stabilized on low levels with slight improvements regionally – mainly supported by increase in domestic travel. Recovery of international travel will depend on how long regulatory travel restrictions are upheld. Nonetheless, we believe that all industry stakeholders need to come together and support the perception that that flying is safe.

MTU is contributing to helping our industry get back up on its feet. We are providing customers with innovative and cost-effective engine service solutions to facilitate the smooth airline re-start that we expect will gradually evolve from the second half of 2020 onwards.

In addition, we continue to partner with customers regarding cost-improvement measures, so that we can support their ramp-up in operations. These measures include intelligent repair solutions, flexible lease services and sourcing teardown engines as well as used serviceable material.

What do you think the long term impact of the pandemic will be?

We are sure that the mid and long-term prospects for the aviation industry remain positive and an uptake will be seen again. All previous crises have shown that the need for mobility and the desire to travel returns. At present, no one can accurately predict how long this will take. In turn, it is even more important to maintain a highly flexible organization that can adjust quickly to market development and opportunities. We are optimistic that after the current downturn, the aviation industry will grow again, and our business base with it. At MTU, we have a broad and predominantly narrowbody MRO portfolio. This combined with our regional spread and diversified customer base means we are highly confident we will emerge from this COVID-19 crisis in due course.

Please give us your silver linings as well – what are the positives that have come or will come out of this unusual time?

The positives are definitely the people. Firstly, our own staff, who have done and continue to do everything in their power to keep the virus out of our facilities remaining highly disciplined and still maintain services for customers. There is a huge sense of solidarity in the face of current challenges and in combatting those to come.

But this also applies to our customer relationships: we have always seen ourselves as partners to our customers, and this will be even more true moving forward. We will work together to find flexible and reliable solutions that work for all sides given the current constrains and limitations we all have, going above and beyond if necessary. We greatly appreciate the trust, support and interest in our employees’ wellbeing that we have received so far.

Dr. Johannes Bussmann, CEO Lufthansa Technik

What is the state of our industry?

“The last few months have clearly shown how volatile and vulnerable the aviation industry is. Even as the MRO side is normally more robust when crisis happens in parts of the world, it hits us this time much harder than in the past. The heavy impact of the coronavirus crisis on international aviation and the MRO business is obvious. Travel restrictions, the cancellation of trade fairs, conferences, business and private trips have forced many airlines to cancel flight connections and to ground their aircraft by 90% and more. This additional burden will bring many customers to the brink of survival, and not every airline will survive. Because even if the crisis peak should be passed sometime in the next few weeks, it will probably take years to get back to normal flight business. This means that operations will be reduced, fleets will become smaller, older, more maintenance-intensive aircraft will be decommissioned, and air traffic as a whole will take a long time to return to pre-corona levels. Under these circumstances, the consequences for the MRO industry will be massive, too. We already see them in our own shop floors and in a consequence have already introduced various measures to mitigate potential operational and economic effects.

We have taken care of all required health measures in our shops based on recommendations of the German Robert Koch institute to ensure an adequate working environment from the health perspective. We have put cost saving measures in effect such as a massive reduction of business trips and internal events, etc. In addition, we have imposed a full hiring freeze and terminated the contracts for almost all temporary workers who hence had to return to their respective agencies. We also have introduced short-time work at our German facilities to react to the lower workload.

Despite these measures we have set up a special organization to secure and continue our business operations for our customers around the world, not only with regard to MRO services but also with regard to a stabile supply chain.

Our international network with our diversified portfolio is paying off in this situation, as we are recording significant workload declines in various business areas, but other areas are still running quite stable.

For example, our Landing Gear division currently is still operating at a good capacity, mainly due to demand from customers offering cargo flights. Our VIP & Special Mission Aircraft division is working on a “close-to-normal” level. And in the engine services sector, we still see a decent demand for our Mobile Engine Services product. Here we offer various MRO services for engines that are primarily performed on-wing or on-site at the customer’s premises. This makes it possible to avoid or at least postpone the odd cost-intensive overhaul in an engine shop. And last-but-not least the current developments in China could mean that the peak of the corona crisis has passed there. Hopefully, this will soon have a positive effect on our regional business. In any case, our subsidiaries and joint ventures in China are already operating almost back to pre-crisis levels.

A well-founded forecast about the further development of our industry is impossible at the present time. There are still daily new restrictions and reductions in international air traffic. While the peak of the corona crisis may be over in parts of Asia, it isn’t in Europe, North America and other regions. No one currently knows when air traffic will return to a more or less normal level. Because even if the health risks of the current crisis should be under control again in the next few months, it will take a long time before the demand for flights rises again significantly and with it the demand for MRO services. I do not believe that we will still return to business as usual this year. But we are doing everything necessary and possible to ensure the economic stability of our company in the medium term and at the same time to be able to offer our customers secure logistics chains and reliable technical services.

But to conclude with a positive statement, I am firmly convinced that the aviation business will regain its former strength in the medium term and return to a solid growth rate. It is important to survive the next months or even the year 2020 and 2021 economically and at the same time to prepare for this post-corona phase now. It will offer us and other strong players good opportunities for positive business development in order to offset the negative impact of the current crisis as quickly as possible. Our early investments in all new aircraft types will proof positively, as on a global basis the fleet will get younger in average in the mid-term. Even if money for new aircrafts will remain tight for a while, which is likely to be the case.”

Russell Ford, Chairman & CEO of StandardAero

What is the state of our industry?

Regarding the COVID-19 pandemic, our first priority is continuing our full focus on following all guidance and precautions to safeguard our employees, customers and communities. All of our global sites and facilities are complying with published guidelines from recognized public health and safety resources and planning for deployment of additional measures as we closely monitor the situation.

COVID-19 business impacts have varied across our different market segments. The natural hedges created by our portfolio of commercial aviation, business aviation, military, helicopter and component repair businesses have given us some insulation from the more immediate dramatic impacts on global airlines and OEMs. Our backlog on certain engine programs and the normal lag time of aftermarket activity has also allowed our shops to remain active on the front end of the pandemic’s impact on North America, in particular.

As far as any signs of bounce back in specific geographies, we are not seeing any near-term positive impacts. Though we believe it is incredibly difficult to forecast in the current environment, we do agree with the methodology and many of the conclusions coming from industry experts based on past crises and profound worldwide traffic declines beginning in late March, which suggest that commercial traffic will take two-three years to recover to 2019 levels.

Following is our current view on how COVID-19 is affecting each of our MRO market segments.

Commercial aviation is clearly the hardest hit, and we expect to see a direct impact to our commercial engine MRO volumes. Despite steep declines in certain turbofan engine volumes, our backlog and pipeline for regional jet and turboprop engine MRO is steadier, but we see signs of declining demand. We are managing this situation daily and have contingency plans for quickly aligning operating costs with volume declines on an engine program-by-program and site-by-site basis.

After a strong Q1, our Component Repair volumes have also been impacted. As a positive offset, we have seen some potential new business opportunities from customers who previously sent work to other shops that are now closed.

In Business Aviation, we have seen strong pipeline of volumes and have experienced unanticipated improvements in scheduled bookings and even higher inputs than planned prior to COVID-19. Many business aviation operators are using this downtime as an opportunity to bring their assets in for early maintenance. Our MRO shops are continuing to schedule work over the next couple of months, but we anticipate volumes declining as 2020 progresses.

Our Helicopter MRO services remain steady state on certain military engine platforms, but we are seeing significant declines on civil engine platforms and airframe mods.

In our Military market segment, the U.S. government services have not indicated any decrease in military sustainment or operating tempo. Inputs are steady and forecast MRO volumes remain consistent despite the COVID-19 situation. Likewise, international military customers have not signaled any decreases in future demand. We are expecting our military MRO shops to continue operating in a normalized fashion.

Prior to COVID-19, we were in expansion mode in all of our business units and hiring many new technicians at virtually all of our sites globally. We have grown in North America and Europe purposefully to establish ourselves in these mature, but growing markets. Additionally, we had been considering numerous opportunities to grow in emerging economies like Asia-Pacific or Latin America, especially as the majority of future aircraft deliveries and subsequently, maintenance requirements will create opportunities for companies like StandardAero.

Looking ahead to the future, the operating model for an MRO company will likely require a more effective combination of cost efficiency, operating flexibility, balance sheet resiliency, market segment diversification, and strategic agility.

We remain bullish about StandardAero’s future growth potential and ability to be opportunistic but like all aerospace companies, we are focused on working our way through the near term uncertainties. In the meantime, all of StandardAero’s primary MRO facilities continue to remain open for business today and our employees are continuing to provide the essential aviation MRO services required by our customers in all of the market segments we serve.

Derek Zimmerman, President Gulfstream Customer Support

What is the state of our industry?

Around the world, Gulfstream’s nearly 4,500-person-strong Customer Support network has been ensuring our customers’ aircraft are ready for a return to flight operations. We have also been focused on ensuring the health and well-being of our customers, our employees, and our communities. Our facilities remained open by quickly adopting new health and safety protocols and network loading has been steady as many operators have used this time for planned and scheduled maintenance. We are committed to helping our customers prepare themselves and their aircraft to resume travel as restrictions are lifted.

Gulfstream already operates the most customer-owned service centers in the industry, and we are continuing to invest to support operators. Since August 2019, we have expanded facilities in Appleton, Wisconsin, and Savannah, Georgia; and added a new service center in Van Nuys, California. We plan to open two new service centers later this year in Palm Beach, Florida, and Farnborough, England. Furthermore, we announced in February 2020 that we will build a new service center at Fort Worth Alliance Airport in Texas. That opening is scheduled for the second half of 2021.

As the world emerges from the current crisis, we’ll see more businesses and individuals recognize the benefits of business aviation, and with that, an increase in discretional maintenance, repair and overhaul work. Gulfstream is ready across the network, with all our aircraft service centers in the U. S. and abroad capable of upgrading, modifying, or refreshing aircraft avionics, connectivity, furniture, and upholstery.

Throughout Gulfstream’s 60-year history, our service capability has been a major part of who we are. Strong service and support are integral to the aircraft ownership experience. It is part and parcel of Gulfstream’s resilience and will continue to strengthen our industry.

Brian Rohloff, SVP Customer Support Textron Aviation

What is your company doing to weather this unprecedented time?

The health and well-being of our customers, our employees and our community is our top priority during this pandemic. We are adhering carefully to social distancing guidelines and are making face masks for all employees to limit the spread of the virus. We’ve also partnered with Wichita State University to manufacture plastic face shields, which we’re donating to medical providers to be worn alongside critical personal protective equipment (PPE).

In terms of the business, we are drawing upon our extensive experience of overcoming tough industry times, such as the aftermath of 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis. We are continuing to invest in product development and have adapted our means of communicating with customers by providing options, but we try to keep it as personalized and innovative as possible.

How is TXTAV’s service network supporting customers during the pandemic?

We are maintaining operations across our facilities and are continuing to provide 24/7 service and parts distribution support. We also introduced financing options for our customers to ensure maximum affordability and flexibility during this challenging time, and have shared guidance on cleaning and caring for aircraft.

Our 1CALL service is fully operational for AOG support across the globe, which is critical to those flying repatriation or special mission flights. 1CALL connects our customers with Mobile Service Units (MSUs) equipped to deliver factory-direct support in the field. That includes service for engines, tires, brakes and more. We have nearly 80 MSUs worldwide, so we can respond to our customers’ needs for service or parts quickly and efficiently during this crisis period.

Could you give some examples of how your aircraft are being used for Covid-19 relief?

Whatever problem our customers face, our product line can help solve it. Our aircraft are used for a wide variety of special missions, including air ambulance, flight inspection and cargo.

For example, one of our customers is the disaster response company Active Deployment Systems. The organization is supplying life support services, such as large tent systems, large showers and restroom trailers, fuel – anything required to set up a human shelter anywhere in the United States. Currently, the company is supporting hospital and military operations across the whole of the mainland U. S. with shower and laundry trailers, fold and wash laundry – the kind of tasks that are essential, but that people probably don’t give much thought to. They are using a Cessna Citation CJ2 jet, which is invaluable for their operations, particularly during this pandemic.

Please give us your silver linings as well – what are the positives that have come or will come out of this unusual time?

I am incredibly proud of how our company has dealt with the crisis so far, and we are doing everything we can to have a positive impact during this time. It’s so rewarding to see our products being used to support Covid-19 response and recovery efforts. Our aircraft are being used as air ambulances, for repatriation, and as a means of transporting medical equipment and supplies to hospitals around the country.

The force of this virus will subside, and the economy will recover. When it does, Textron Aviation will be here, persevering like we have for more than nine decades, and ready to serve our customers and communities with pride.

Philip Anson Jr., CEO STS Aviation Group

What is your company doing to weather this unprecedented time?

The safety of our employees is our primary concern right now. Second to that, however, we are focused on costs and cash flow from a business management standpoint.

STS Aviation Group (STS) is a diversified company. Some of our divisions are service focused while others are asset intensive. Many are outside of the United States. Cost management for each division has been a company-by-company exercise. It feels like we have now gone through our annual cost budgeting and revenue forecasting process many times over, and we will continue to do so during these unprecedented times.

Cargo operators and military programs continue to show strong demand. Asia is in the early stages of showing increased demand as their economy begins to come back online.

Managing our customer demand to our costs and cash burn is now our biggest focus for the long term.

What are your predictions about how the aviation maintenance industry will recover?

We are predicting a slow recovery. Required aircraft maintenance will not be a choice as our customers begin to operate the aircraft more. Many of our airline customers do not have significant internal resources to support much of their aircraft maintenance needs, and they will rely on maintenance suppliers like STS to support them as they begin to fly more. We will be here for them as that happens.

What is the economic outlook for the aviation maintenance sector?

The airline spend will be reduced substantially because of the lower number of aircraft being operated. Prior strong customer relationships will be key to maintenance providers picking up business as the industry begins to come out of this. Airlines with the least amount of internal maintenance resources will be in need of the most help. As in past economic downturns, our customers have turned to companies like STS Aviation Group to help with the initial ramp up before adding significant internal resources. If this happens, as it has in the past, the aviation maintenance sector could see an earlier uptick in demand than the industry as a whole.

How long do you predict the recovery period will be?

We have always been accused of being an overly optimistic group, but we are also realists. We expect to see a small uptick in demand mid-summer, but no real recovery trends will show until Q4 of 2020. We are hoping to see good recovery trends to start showing Q1 of 2021, but there are still a lot of things still up in the air that will affect that timeline.

What can we expect for the rest of 2020; for the next two years; five years?

Our crystal ball is not working as well is it has in the past, but we can listen to the industry experts as everyone else is. It looks like we are in for long-term recovery regardless of who you talk to. Each business will have different timing of demand schedules based on their individual customer mix. We have a good mix of cargo operators and mid-sized airlines. We have also had a good focus on the regional carriers and military program support. We serve many international locations and customers that may have earlier recovery curves than what we can expect here in the United States.

What do you think the long-term impact of the pandemic will be?

We think there will be a lot of organizational restructuring from the carrier side of things. More consolidation of the supplier bases will happen. Supply chain restructuring, organization efficiency and cost focuses will be the name of the game. As much as we all hate to go through times like this, it often forces organizations to make hard but long overdue decisions that possibly would not have been made otherwise. Decisions that ultimately can allow a business to come away leaner, meaner and more profitable. Those that survive often find themselves in even stronger financial positions in the long term. We found that to be the case after 9/11 for our company.

Please give us your silver linings as well – what are the positives that have come or will come out of this unusual time?

Change is scary, especially when it is as dramatic as what we are now going through now. The negatives are obvious, but the opportunities that will present themselves on the recovery end can be tremendous. Every organization in our industry with the right mindset, a solid plan, and resources to get them through to the recovery phase will have new, and abundant, opportunities to interact with customers that were not present prior to the downturn. Those organizations that are adaptive and innovative should fare well in this “new-world” economy.

Jonathan Berger, Managing Director Alton Aviation Consultancy

What should companies be doing to weather this unprecedented time?

With a long history of weathering numerous industry shocks, a playbook of cash preservation lessons-learned and best practices has evolved for airline maintenance and engineering divisions to follow. This includes:

A. Engineering and Maintenance Planning:

• Defer or cancel all non-essential spend (e.g. planned capital projects and aircraft modifications)
• Right-size the fleet; in collaboration with the network & fleet planning teams, support development of tail-specific aircraft retirement, storage, and lease return plans
• Leverage unencumbered assets for liquidity through secured credit vehicles or sale-leasebacks (e.g. spare engines, component inventory, GSE, tooling, etc.)

B. Airframe Heavy Maintenance:

• Avoid costly maintenance expenditures by parking or retiring aircraft as they approach their next scheduled major overhaul

C. Engine & Component Maintenance:

• Execute ‘green-time’ programs to avoid costly shop visits (i.e. leverage time remaining on their stored or parked fleet of spare engines, APUs, and landing gears)
• Tap the engine lessor market to defer engine shop visit inductions
• Harvest stored or parked aircraft for aircraft components to reduce spares purchasing and repair activity
• Develop alternate materials strategy (i.e. accelerate adoption of surplus parts/USM, PMA, and DER repairs)

D. Line Maintenance:

• Leverage robust third-party Line Maintenance supplier market
• The prudent and rational strategic path forward for MRO executives is to focus on their fundamental core competencies while ensuring the right balance of fixed vs. variable costs in order to be well positioned to rapidly increase capacity as demand returns, and be better prepared to weather the next inevitable downturn.

What are your predictions about how the aviation maintenance industry will recover?

Very slowly.

What is the economic outlook for the aviation maintenance sector?

Cash is king – those companies that have don’t have enough access to cash to get through the next 12-18 months may not survive.

How long do you predict the recovery period will be?

100% dependent upon when a vaccine is developed. Anywhere from 2-5 years.

What can we expect for the rest of 2020; for the next two years; five years?

Pain.

What do you think the long term impact of the pandemic will be?

Similar to how the terrorist attacks of 9/11 spawned a multi-billion dollar aviation security industry, one could assume that the Covid-10 pandemic will undoubtably launch a multi-billion dollar aviation health industry. With regards to aircraft maintenance, 9/11 led to the requirement to retrofit all aircraft with new secure cockpit doors and cabin video monitoring systems. Perhaps the post-pandemic aircraft will require new seating configurations, cabin air filtration systems, etc.

Please give us your silver linings as well – what are the positives that have come or will come out of this unusual time?

It’s hard to believe that just a few short months ago, the major issues keeping MRO executives up at night (e.g. skilled labor shortages, limited hangar capacity, and engine overhaul material shortages) have since vanished virtually overnight because of COVID-19. The flood of used serviceable material (USM) available in the market will help keep those airline survivor’s MRO costs low.

Rich Phillips, Partner Elevate Innovations

What should companies doing to weather this unprecedented time?

Looking back at the financial crisis of 2008/09 is helpful when viewing a path for companies today. The speed and severity this time is much higher, but the necessity to reform towards strength is the same. Technology and automation were leveraged at the time to improve efficiency, spread decision-making, and optimize the available assets. In today’s world, that defines “Digital Transformation” and the adoption of a data-driven operation. Companies that have invested previously in a strong digital portfolio are more resilient to the pressures placed on the organizations relying on human engagement. Companies have the opportunity to take a step back and look at their portfolio, identify where they are “human heavy” and “digital light” and look to start or accelerate progress in addressing that balance.

What are your predictions about how the aviation maintenance industry will recover?

The uncertainty around market recovery hides the potential for the maintenance industry. As capacity and forecasts settle, providers will have ideal conditions to partner with their customers and prioritize work. Finance concerns will continue to define timing, but maintenance providers that can better utilize data to determine how to clear work and put back into service should be advantaged. For a service provider to be able to work with the customer and optimize work enables the airline to maximize their reduced fleet for more efficient operations.

What is the economic outlook for the aviation maintenance sector?

Airline fleet management shows that the maintenance sector is an early indicator of recovery for the wider market. Delayed and cancelled new aircraft mean that airlines will seek to invest more into current fleet. Aircraft previously scheduled for exit due to maintenance thresholds are now viewed as more viable. The entirety of an airline’s grounded fleet (often more than 70% of the total) will not be fully reactivated during the recovery. The pressure will be on to selectively source and recover individual aircraft which present ideal economic operating models. The maintenance sector is poised to provide partnership to customers through the selection process and enable a path to financial improvement.

How long do you predict the recovery period will be?

There is not enough data to clearly state the period, but indications point to a 12-18 month window of recovery. During this time the industry will radically adjust fleet size, operations, automation, and resourcing. The fleet composition will change, meaning that many airlines will continue operations with aircraft well past their original end-of-service dates. A full recovery to balanced operations and healthy financials is expected to take at least 2-3 years.

What can we expect for the rest of 2020; for the next two years; five years?

2020 will see the stabilization of fleets at reduced levels, as airlines continue to work through the individual aircraft for performance. These organizations will also begin rapid transformation towards data-driven operations which could stretch to the end of 2021, however changes will begin to make an impact this year. The additive value of change means that stability reached in the next two-three years should place the airlines and industry as a whole in position to invest and grow. In five years, the industry will look smaller than 2019, but will be more efficient, financially healthy, and designed to survive future shocks better than previously.

What do you think the long term impact of the pandemic will be?

There is no doubt the pandemic will have lasting effects on the industry. However, the nature of the impact, the speed and level of reduction, and lack of governmental clarity on how they will address social activities in the future, makes it extraordinarily difficult to predict. Aviation is a critical global infrastructure, and demand in cargo, business, and some family travel is the foundation from which the industry will grow. Expected passenger reductions and ongoing travel restrictions will most heavily impact the longer international routes that have been primary growth for many airlines in the last five years. Recovery will likely be a hub/spoke operation, with business-heavy routes prioritized. The change to the OEM backlogs will be a primary indicator of the long-term impact on the industry. Digitalization will be expected, and customers will begin to observe changes to operations that were not previously supported such as facial recognition boarding, aircraft system improvements, seating configurations and spacing. Passenger costs are likely going to be higher during the recovery, and may not reach 2019 levels for some time. Customer loyalty programs will evolve and be more closely utilized by the operational digital teams as well.

Please give us your silver linings as well – what are the positives that have come or will come out of this unusual time?

The Digital Transformation of aviation will be quite positive and reflect what has happened in other industries to massive benefit. The operational reduction will improve utilization and focus the drive towards dynamic maintenance, improved visibility, and agility. Digital operations will provide the value lever to recover, stabilize, and grow towards the future of air transport. Maintenance is a critical element of this process, and providers are in position to develop closer customer relationships and more predictable workflows.

Ryan Waguespack, Senior Vice President National Air Transportation Association (NATA)

What should companies be doing to weather this unprecedented time?

Repair stations are continuing to see activity, as customers are using this down time to complete inspections and upgrades. Their focus should be on maintaining their workforce and furthering their internal safety initiatives. MROs are finding great success in specializing with certain models and makes.

What are your predictions about how the aviation maintenance industry will recover?

The maintenance sector will ultimately be affected by this pandemic, but we have yet to see how that ripple will take place. Business aviation is anticipating a boom, as companies look to keep their workforce safe. Private travel is expecting an increase, as the airlines scale back and cut passenger capacity to only a fraction. It will take years for the airline industry to return to pre-pandemic levels. Until we see how MRO businesses are impacted, we won’t know what recovery will look like.

What is the economic outlook for the aviation maintenance sector?

As more aircraft enter into service and activity begins to increase, MROs around the country will see more work. If aircraft sales continue to rise, the need for more modifications will also increase, filling those potential future gaps in business.

How long do you predict the recovery period will be?

Flight activity is going to take months to get back to some semblance of normality, we will most likely see a W shaped flight activity recovery period. We will see companies that currently own business aircraft examining all methods of utilizing it to maintain their business prosperity, including expanding use through charters or by their own employees.

What can we expect for the rest of 2020; for the next two years; five years?

For the remainder of 2020, we are cautiously optimistic. The next two-five years are hard to tell, as so many factors play into this.

What do you think the long term impact of the pandemic will be?

It’s going to force all businesses to look internally at sustainability. Businesses will look to build more cash reserves and operate with a lean workforce ­— doing more with less.

Please give us your silver linings as well – what are the positives that have come or will come out of this unusual time?

It’s been inspiring to see so many of our members from across the industry, especially MROs, innovating to protect the safety of their employees and working to give back to their communities. We are hearing story after story of our members who are diversifying their operations to manufacture and deliver much-needed PPE and other critical supplies and services. Our industry was born out of ingenuity and continuous innovation. This spirit and drive will get our industry through these incredible challenges and beyond.

Andy Hakes, CEO AireXpert

We spend a lot of time speaking with mid-level & senior management teams at airlines and based upon what we’re seeing and hearing, this is indicative of what we expect to occur as we emerge from these horrible market conditions. Several common themes seem to regurgitate throughout all of our conversations with air carriers across the globe.

The (very) bad news for U.S. carriers is that there appears to be significant cause for concern as the terms of the CARES act expire. While the fallout for folks who work in MRO is obvious, the ripple effects are also going to be problematic for airlines who have to deal with a mass exodus of talent, knowledge and experience.

For U.S. airlines who now have taxpayers as major shareholders, passenger rights regulations could again become a hot topic as they have in Europe and more recently, Canada. Even if this issue doesn’t gain traction in the formal sense, expect increased congressional & media scrutiny along with a higher level of attention to service and operational failures.

Several leadership teams have already publicly acknowledged that the post COVID-19 recovery will produce airlines that are smaller and “more efficient”. An oft-repeated phrase that we’ve heard in conversations is that “we have to figure out how to do more with less”. While we’re in 100% agreement, I personally don’t envy the decision makers who have to figure out where to slice and dice when peoples’ livelihoods are at stake.

One area of concern that we’re focusing on now is the health and continued viability of airline vendor networks. We recently reached out to a very specific yet large cross section of vendors that airlines are heavily reliant on to assess their outlook and positions. The responses ranged from neutral to downright worrisome. A significant percentage of the vendors which supply airlines tend to fall into the category of “mom & pop” operations who haven’t yet defined a strategic niche, operate on thin margins and lack access to external capital. The sustained loss of revenue is hugely problematic to the extent that COVID-19 could prove to be an existential crisis for them.

Within that market and where cost pressures are always a significant factor, the margins that these companies live off of often aren’t enough to pay for training or senior talent. As a result, turnover tends to be high and airlines have to swallow the bitter pills that often accompany a lack of highly experienced technical talent. At best, the vendor networks will somehow survive the downturn. At worst, the appetite for further cuts and pricing pressures simply may not be there.

To add another layer of complexity, (as if we needed another) several managers privately voiced their frustrations to me, (in effect) saying, “When airlines were handing out performance bonuses and profit sharing checks, we were left out in the cold. Now that shared sacrifice is the message, they’re saying ‘we’re all in this together’.” Given that sort of sentiment, airlines may very well have to take some measures to strengthen their vendor partnerships going forward.

Another minefield which might be drastically altered by squeezed budgets is maintenance training. While training makes practical sense, the upfront costs are extensive and the return on that investment is difficult to quantify in a traditional sense. In an environment of extreme cost-saving measures, CFO’s and finance directors are likely to take an axe to training budgets which ultimately will have long-term & negative consequences for maintenance operations.

Like many companies, we’re hoping for the best and planning for the worst. It’s encouraging to see indications of a small uptick in passenger traffic and it’s our hope that the revenue folks can entice people back onto the planes. As long as the trend continues, we’ll see the operational folks focusing on the many things that will be necessary to ensure that airlines can successfully do “more with less.”

Neil Book, CEO and President JSSI

What is the state of our industry?

Based on the real-time data available to JSSI, April 2020 flight hours are down approximately 75% compared to April 2019. As a number of countries begin to ease restrictions and borders begin to re-open, we predict a very modest increase in the month of May with regards to flight hours.

Until there is a highly effective treatment or vaccine for COVID-19, we expect to see significant changes to how business jets are being utilized. The largest demographic of business jet owners are males over the age of 60, who fall into a “high risk” group. I’ve had extensive conversations with a number of clients that fall into this category and while they will continue to fly, they intend to reduce the frequency of their travel, so as to avoid hotels, conferences, etc.

With that said, we are already seeing a significant number of new users migrating to a wide range of business aviation options, such as jet card, charter, fractional and even outright ownership. For many businesses and individuals with the resources, the health risks associated with walking through a commercial airport with thousands of people and getting onto a commercial flight is simply too great.

In JSSI’s Q1 Business Aviation Index, we saw the lowest March flight hours since the global financial crash of 2008. April flight hours are the lowest we have on record. While I do believe flight hours will steadily increase from this point forward, it may take several years before we get back to 2018 and 2019 levels.

The potential of digital twins for aerospace is coming to light.

Digital twins, virtual simulations of physical assets, are finding their way into aerospace. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) can design new engines, airframes or complex components or test how assets will mature throughout lifecycles. These virtual models allow OEMs to refine maintenance contracts and aftercare processes; it can make the twin undergo stress tests that may not be logistically possible inside a laboratory; or it can test out new designs or re-designs to establish whether to begin manufacture for physical tests. Today, entire, complex digital twins of engines are in use by OEMs.

How far can this technology extend into the industry and is there a use case for non-OEMs to use them as well? “OEMs are leading the innovation, in particular engine manufacturers,” advises Nadine Etong, director, MRO Product Line at the Aerospace and Defense Business Unit, IFS. For instance, an OEM can use a virtual copy of an in-service engine to model operational scenarios that improve future designs. “Digital Twins can help us build up knowledge on how parts behave in service, which can then be used to help us be more intuitive when we design new parts,” adds Dr. Chris Heason, engineering specialist – Civil Aerospace at Rolls-Royce.

Rolls-Royce has pioneered the implementation of digital “twinning” within certain stages of manufacture and maintenance, with a designated Intelligent Engine program underway that designs, tests and manages its family of large aero engines digitally. By adding real operational data to a simulation, supplied by customers worldwide via the physical engines, Rolls-Royce can build a picture of the long-term life of its assets. This enhances maintenance programs and enables predictive and preventative maintenance to prolong time on wing. The aftermarket potential is significant. “Digital twins help us plan aftermarket to maximize fleet availability, minimize disruption, and optimize MRO capacity and throughput,” says Heason.

General Electric (GE) is using digital twins in its manufacturing process. “GE has already built digital twin components for its GE60 engine family and also helped develop the world’s first digital twin for an airplane’s landing gear,” says Etong. “Sensors placed on typical landing gear failure points, such as hydraulic pressure and brake temperature, provide real-time data to help predict early malfunctions or diagnose the remaining lifecycle of the landing gear.”

Etong adds that GE Aviation also creates digital replicas for its engines, giving the company an electronic trail for every single one. “This allows GE to monitor its performance, predict maintenance issues and, ultimately, reduce costs after the engine leaves the plant,” she says.

Maintenance Applications

Digital twins reap tangible benefits for OEMs. But can areas of the maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) industry can benefit from digital twins? “In MRO, we are right at the start of adoption,” explains Adrian Jennings, chief product advocate at Ubisense. “Digital twins of many kinds are becoming widely adopted in the manufacturing process, and that experience and technology is being fed into MRO.

“The initial focus within MRO tends to be on asset management, for instance tooling and ground support equipment,” continues Jennings. “Applications quickly grow into more process-oriented value than asset management. For example, intelligent pre-staging of tools and materials, automatic tool check in, check out, task error proofing, or automatic compliance monitoring.”

The current focus on digital twin technology lies in enabling preventative and predictive maintenance for airlines and MROs, which increases reliability and safety for the operator.

“The commercial aviation industry is going through major disruptions and companies, including MROs, are changing their business models to capitalize on new technologies,” says Etong. “Not just digital twins but also artificial intelligence (AI), the internet of things (IoT) and more. The initial focus is on engines, closely followed by components.”

MRO provider Lufthansa Technik (LHT) also designs and manufactures engine components in addition to developing repair processes. It therefore has the unique position of speaking from the viewpoint of operator, manufacturer and both airline and third-party MRO provider. “Digital twins are used very often to model design, certification, production and support of modifications, processes or even complete VIP Cabins,” adds Peter Isendahl, senior manager at LHT. “Sometimes even our advanced repair processes require a digital model of aircraft components to allow us to use it for automated MRO processes.”

AVIATAR

The first step into digital twins for LHT is AVIATAR, launched in 2017. A digital platform with numerous solutions focusing on condition monitoring, predictive maintenance and fault analytics, the overall goal for LHT is to create, for an airline, a complete replica of each aircraft in its fleet. For instance, engine health-related data (EHM) is fed through digital twins to help predict when a certain component will fail and will advise the user on AVIATAR.

“AVIATAR will allow airlines to benefit using digital solutions,” adds Isendahl. “Meanwhile, there are many other digital twin data models operational within the Lufthansa Group focusing on other areas of operation and hardware for aircraft, since Lufthansa Technik is also a production organisation.”

A digital twin requires data, however. Digital twins are currently developed by OEMs, and filtered down to operators or companies within the OEM network. To develop an accurate replica of a complex asset or component, the business building the CAD file will require access to intellectual property (IP), such as maintenance manuals and complex performance data parameters to reflect accurately. “There is a debate…about data ownership,” adds Etong. “OEMs need the data from many airlines. From an airline perspective, they are reluctant to be charged for additional services based on their own data even though they see the value they can get from a consolidated viewpoint. There must be an agreement between OEMs and their customers,” says Etong. Ultimately the IP belongs to the OEM.

“Digital Twins are taking off on the airline side, but it is slower with a focus on major sub-systems rather than the complete aircraft,” continues Etong. “MROs who have long-term agreements with VIP customers will collaborate with them as they do not have complete visibility on all aircraft operating condition data.”

Other Applications

Digital twins were originally introduced in production processes, to assist in developing, testing and monitoring new technologies. Currently, LHT is deploying digital twins in the design of aircraft cabins. “SkyRetreat” is a A220 VIP aircraft cabin concept developed by LHT, whereby digital designs were used in the initial design phase.

Digital twins are emerging in other areas, aside from engine OEMs and MROs. IFS and TEST-FUCHS have been working on a proof-of-concept together for the last year. Austrian-based manufacturing company TEST-FUCHS has implemented digital twins for the ground support assets and test equipment it manufactures. The project also addresses the potential for digital twins to be developed for pre “new-gen” components, which don’t always have sensors fitted.

An important conduit for the digital twin is sensor technology. Emerging assets all tend to have sensors, allowing for ease of data gathering. This is the channel providing most of the performance and health monitoring data to a CAD developed twin.

“We have found that it is possible to gather data on older assets, depending on the type of asset. IFS and TEST-FUCHS chose a hydraulic valve used on the Ariane 5 shuttle as part of its investigations into this area,” says IFS’s Etong. “The valve itself does not deliver data. However, the test equipment used to gather some measurements (such as resistance and impedance) delivers data about the valve. We were therefore able to gather the data we needed through the test equipment, but there are many different possible scenarios. Economically it is more viable if the company does not need to invest in additional tooling, material or software to upgrade existing equipment. Otherwise it is probably not viable, and a company should prioritize newer assets instead.”

The idea for TEST-FUCHS was to collect test results from some of their devices and test benches in the field. “These tests results are used for preventive maintenance but could be used as well for predictive maintenance,” continues Etong. “The digital twin of the component via IFS Applications can then be used for simulations, what-if scenarios and design improvements.”

Engine and Airframe Aftermarket

The potential for digital twins to make an impact is in the engine and airframe aftermarket is big. IFS says that use cases are now out there. “Maintenance businesses are now using digital twin technology to focus on preventative maintenance,” says Etong. “There is now also a shift towards predictive maintenance. OEMs who are offering care programs, such as power-by-the-hour programs for engine MRO, need a lot of data, from various sources (airlines, MROs, lessors) to be able to generate trends. The intelligence behind this huge amount of data also helps inform the design of new assets, components and even whole engines.”

Digital twins are useful for a number of reasons in the aftermarket, elaborates Rolls-Royce’s Heason. “Within Rolls-Royce, our Services Digital Twins are virtual models of fleets of engines in in-service life. They combine utilisation, maintenance, route, environment, and performance data to understand future operational and maintenance demands. This helps Rolls-Royce to plan its aftermarket businesses which maximizes fleet availability, minimizes disruption, and optimizes MRO capacity.”

Digital twins also enable Rolls-Royce to carry out access simulations for new tools or repair processes that it wishes to implement. There are also less obvious benefits to the use. “Parts may move slightly in service and we may wish to see if our existing tools can still access the part,” explains Heason.

“In our blisk repair lab, we also deploy digital twin technology, as it enables us to drive automated repair processes by helping to create the necessary machine movement tool paths for material subtraction and addition,” says Heason. “As every part that needs repair is slightly different in geometry due to the operating regime the engine sees we need our repairs to adapt to these differences. As such creating a digital twin for each part we need to repair enables us to successfully implement this automated and adaptive repair.”

Heason explains that creating a digital twin also allows for better inspection of parts, enabling Rolls-Royce to assess changes to the part through its lifecycle and scheduled overhauls. They are actively deploying digital simulations to enhance repair techniques and processes. “For maintenance, there will be digital twins created for blisk repair for the Trent 1000, Trent 7000, and Trent XWB, ultimately the large aero engines,” explains Heason. “As engines start to employ more complex materials and components, more automated solutions are required and because of the adaptive requirement we have for these repairs, it is likely we will see greater uptake of this digital twin approach for future repairs.”

Considerations

Digital twin technology can extend the overall life of a new-gen aircraft, but can this be transferred to aging aircraft still in operation? MRO providers hope to leverage this technology without the association of a large airline motivating business processes.

“For any component or subsystem in an aircraft digital twins of physical shape could be developed using reverse engineering and processes could be re-modeled, but this can be a lengthy process which would require a solid business case,” says Isendahl. “If required and economically sensible, it is possible.”

This capability would not extend to all MRO providers, however. “Because independent MRO providers, outside of an OEM network neither own the asset or the configuration data, it is extremely difficult to gather the data required to run a digital twin,” highlights Etong. “An operator can provide the independent MRO access to their internet of things (IoT) solution if they have one. This will allow planners to have a better understanding of the aircraft condition…prior to aircraft arrival. The independent MRO can then feed such a solution with detailed information about the aircraft maintenance.”

The focus of the use of digital twins is on aircraft systems that benefit most from the concept. Complex components that cause the most disruption if faults are detected will be a priority for those leveraging the technology. “Airlines will typically focus on some key sub-systems such as engines, landing gear, hydraulic systems and avionics systems,” says Etong. For operators to use digital twins to progress preventative and predictive maintenance, the feeding of aircraft and engine health monitoring (AHM & EHM) into the twin is vital. “‘Day-to-day’ monitoring is done from day one and does not require historical data,” continues Etong. “AHM is one of the main sources of information. To plan for heavy maintenance however, such as a C-check, there is a need to collect months of historical data.”

Engine OEMs will utilize historical data in order to ensure the digital twin models developed in its testing facility are as representative of the physical twins as possible. “The amount required depends on the complexity of the system to be modelled and the accuracy required for the solution,” advises Heason. “As the quantity of data increases and the computing power to process becomes available, expectations of modeling accuracy also increase, and we will need to evolve the twins to suit.

“Within our blisk repair project we are creating a digital twin of a very complex component and only have conventional contact measurement data to compare back to the original manufactured part,” continues Heason. “Going forward, there will be a greater uptake of creating digital twins at manufacture, so we can access more data on how the part has dimensionally moved between initial build and overhauls.”

High-Tech Repair Processes

As the engines and components that power new-gen aircraft have grown in sophistication, so have the processes developed to repair and prolong the life of the asset. These so-called “hi-tech” repairs require significant knowledge of the asset’s design and development in addition to access to intellectual property (IP) and expensive tooling. A digital twin of the asset therefore assists repair shops and providers in developing and testing repair processes on the virtual asset before progressing into physical repair testing saving time and money.

“With data collected, data scientists and engineers can run simulations and determine corrective actions in advance of any defect or damage,” says Etong. “Note that there are already repair instructions provided by the aircraft manufacturer through SRM documents—however, an airline can push the envelope further and simulate more precise environments based on their operating conditions.

“Take the example of an airline which might be operating in a city where the fog level is higher than normal. Such an airline might want to gather some sub-system measurements under these weather conditions and overlay the data collected, with defects raised by technicians on the ground after the aircraft has landed and inspections have been performed.”

From the manufacturer’s perspective, Rolls-Royce’s Heason explains that a greater uptake of digital twin techniques through design, manufacture and service will enable OEMs to better predict what the input condition of the component will be when it reaches overhaul and aid the early phases of its repair development programmes. “Ultimately this will help us to develop and enhance techniques for hi-tech repair,” he adds.

Will there be a day when each engine and airframe within an airline has its own digital twin associated to it? “There is no reason why a nominal digital twin of an ‘ideal’ engine couldn’t be provided for each engine type given that CAD files exist for the parts, but for ‘real’ digital twin implementation is more challenging,” explains Heason. “The sheer number of individual components and the complexity of the technology required to create individual digital twins for every component mean that currently, it is sensible to identify key components for which having a digital twin is most useful.”

“In the next few years and decades all new-gen aircraft, engines and components will be available as digital twins,” adds Isendahl. “But more important are digital twins related to the aircraft operations. It is nice to know how an aircraft was delivered to an airline, but this is just a one-day snapshot. It’s the following 20 to 30 years when the operators have to maintain and modify the aircraft in order to comply with passenger and authority expectations.”

Digital Process Twins

The reliabilities generated by digital twins can extend to reliability across an entire business. “Increasingly, businesses are employing software systems to help plan and manage complex processes,” says Jennings of Ubisense. “Aircraft MRO is a series of complex processes. While planning systems have become more sophisticated, virtually replicating a shopfloor to forecast operations is the next step.”

LHT‘s Isendahl sees the potential of digital process twins – particularly within logistics. “It happens already in other industries and LHT is making strides into this area,” he says. LHT’s Digital Warehouse is an example. By digitising and automating many of the processes that occur within its warehouse, LHT is able to develop a digital image of the day-to-day movements and therefore a digital representation of the warehouse. Examples of automated processes include wearable scanners that read RFID tags. By adopting these processes within the physical warehouse, LHT is able to build a real-time virtual image of inventory movements that arrive/depart the building.

“MROs can leverage digital twin technology to streamline their supply chain network,” adds Etong. “Running a digital twin for an asset is only the first step, the aim is to extrapolate this to create a digital twin of a whole fleet of assets. Take this a step further and a digital twin of the fleet can become part of a digital twin of an entire business, with process flows visualized and bottlenecks flagged in real-time—much more valuable than one single model.”

Digital twins could enhance logistics and forecast potential incidents that will cause delays. “MRO operations are a mix of routine and non-routine tasks, where the total work is unknown before the process commences,” adds Jennings. “A plan will need to be updated the moment a non-routine issue surfaces for instance. Even without the non-routine tasks, routine inspections encounter delays.

“Software planning systems therefore need to understand what’s happening on the hangar floor: they need to be able to monitor what’s going on so they can answer not ‘what is the next step in the plan?’ but ‘what’s the next step that will allow us to remain on schedule even though we’ve veered off plan?’”

What the planning systems need is a view of exactly what has happened and is currently happening on the hangar floor. Jennings explains that it needs to know the real-time status and interactions of people, tools, materials and tasks so the MRO knows exactly where it is in the process and can define next steps. This is the Digital Process Twin. “With that visibility planning systems can constantly adjust and correct for issues as they arise, not blindly following the original plan but constantly updating it to maintain efficiency,” he says. This is where the true potential of digital twins come into play.

Extending the digital twin to an organization level is certainly possible, agrees Heason of Rolls-Royce. “Digital twin techniques are extremely adaptive. While for us the digital twin is part of a comprehensive suite of digital models, in addition to being designed, tested and maintained in the digital twin environment, our aero engines will become increasingly connected. This means the physical asset and services provided can become further aligned.”

Ubisense Smartspace

Much of the information already exists to simulate processes on an MRO’s shopfloor. “Tool databases already include information about maintenance and calibration state and plans already allocate tools to tasks,” says Jennings. “The additional questions to answer include: where exactly are those tools? Are they being used by a qualified technician? Are they being used in the right task? Is that task running late jeopardizing the next task that needs the tool? Can we expedite tool transfer from one task to the next, bypassing the tool store?

“So the additional information required is the physical location of all the relevant assets, and that comes from a variety of different RFID technologies ranging from passive RFID to Bluetooth low energy and ultra-wideband,” continues Jennings. “The overall goal is to add the context of location, flow and interaction to existing business data in order to stitch the whole hangar floor picture together into a digital twin.”

In terms of installation time, a single workstation could be up and running within a few weeks, and a large facility within a few months. According to Jennings, the biggest effort is the physical installation of sensors, which is done so as not to interfere with hangar operations. Once installed, sensors go through a one-time commissioning process and are then connected with the software platform operating the digital twin.

SmartSpace takes the raw data from sensors and synthesizes that with other existing data. Its engine models the expected process flow and alerts planning systems the moment an issue arises. The goal is always to detect and correct errors, and to minimize turnaround time by maintaining efficient, coordinated process flow across the entire hangar, says Ubisense.

For the physical twin, sensors are installed up high in the hangar infrastructure, normally looking downward and inward into the workstations. A network of sensors covers the entire hangar floor or areas of critical interest. “Once installed, sensors are unobtrusive and require little to no maintenance,” Jennings says.

Assets to be incorporated in the digital twin would then require an RFID tag to be fitted, which is typically a battery-operated active tag with a lifetime spanning several years.

Future of the Digital Twin

“AVIATAR has been live for over two years, but we were already using process modelling and 3-D design for many years before that date,” Isendahl says. “The advantages today are the new digital technologies, computing power and cloud-based solutions. This allows us to introduce more efficient digital solutions quicker, yet compared to aircraft life cycles of more than 30 years, these are the “early days” for digital twins and digital cooperation. “

“The global digital twin market size is expected to reach $26.07 billion by 2025—registering a strong CAGR of 38.2% over the forecast years,” says Etong, “and we are now starting to see the first successful use cases of digital twins in action in commercial aviation, but there is more to come.” As the potential for digital twins expands across the industry, non-OEMs can explore the benefits for their business and assets. By utilising platforms developed by software providers that can perform the data mining and simulation required to develop a twin, the concept will continue to flourish.