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Europe’s maintenance, repair and overhaul businesses have entered uncharted territory in 2020. As the COVID-19 pandemic severely hobbles the aviation industry with plummeting aircraft capacity and shrinking fleets, experts agree Europe’s MROs will be among the hardest hit globally.

The next few years will likely be challenging at best, forcing managers to muster all their resources as they make the difficult journey toward better days.

Some insiders believe it’s a crisis serious enough to threaten the survival of some independent MRO operations, leaving the industry permanently changed, moving forward.

Sudden airline fleet reductions due to a massive drop in passengers has trickled down to MROs — resulting in a regional market at least 50 percent of what it was, according to aerospace industry analyst Richard Brown, managing director of London-based NAVEO Consultancy.

The change has been so drastic that comparisons to the period after the 9/11 attacks in 2001 and the global recession of 2008 don’t come close.

To stop the financial bleeding, airlines are in a cash-conservation mode, Brown says, which means they’re largely avoiding maintenance when possible, within regulations.

“Right now, the airlines are in a holding pattern,” Brown said. “They’re making decisions about labor, their fleet, decisions which affect people and the traveling public.”

The result: Some 2020 projections show Western European MRO revenue will top out at just $8.3 billion — a 59 percent drop in the year’s pre-COVID-19 projection of $20.1 billion, according to figures published by Statista.

That’s prompting maintenance operations to re-think their business strategies, develop new revenue streams and expand existing ones.

MRO executives and industry analysts offered Aviation Maintenance Magazine their perspectives on the current situation, including what scenarios may be on the horizon and how they’re preparing to meet the challenge.

What happened?

First, let’s take a minute to remember how we got here. In early 2020, public concerns about contracting or spreading the virus triggered a free fall in passenger demand, worldwide. By April, the crisis had already resulted in a 94.3 percent reduction in industry-wide revenue passenger kilometers – “the largest contraction in recent history,” according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

In Europe alone, April RPKs were down 99 percent, year-on-year. The sudden drop off forced dozens of airlines from Aer Lingus to Volotea to suspend service for weeks, and in some cases, months. To save money, airlines began fleet cuts. Planes were parked. Airlines decided to retire older aircraft sooner than planned.

The MRO industry went from boom to gloom in a heartbeat.

‘We have an MRO infrastructure that’s built to support the forecasted fleet for this year, which would be 35,000 airplanes, the biggest fleet we’ve ever had,” Brown says. “It was the biggest MRO market that we’ve ever had and suddenly we’re down to production levels that I think will be around the level of about 2006.”

How Bad?

David Doyle, vice president, corporate strategy, business development and innovation management at Hamburg, Germany-based Lufthansa Technik, said it’s “clear this is a crisis of a dimension which the aviation and aerospace industry has never experienced.”

“Previous crises were more regional in their nature and had shorter dips than we have experienced in recent months,” Doyle says.

Plummeting airline capacity has prompted many airlines to park significant portions of their fleets as well as accelerate fleet retirement plans. The targets of these early retirements have been fuel-guzzling widebody quadjets.

Europe’s widebody early retirement list includes Lufthansa Group, which has temporarily decommissioned its Airbus A340-600s. Lufthansa Group also has fully decommissioned six Airbus A380s two years early and five Boeing 747-400s. Air France said goodbye to its A380 fleet two years in advance and also decommissioned its remaining A340-300s. In addition, Virgin Atlantic and Iberia have chosen to let go of their A340-600s earlier than planned.

Worldwide, about 2,000 aircraft will effectively be retired in 2020, according to NAVEO. That’s a nearly 300 percent increase from 2019’s approximately 680 retirements. NAVEO forecasts that — between 2020 and 2026 — a total of around 1,200 Airbus A320ceos, 650 Boeing 737NGs, 330 Boeing 767s, 300 Boeing 757s and 440 Boeing 777-200s will be retired from the global fleet.

Keep in mind that A320ceos and 737NGs make up the lion’s share of all in-service or stored aircraft.

Meanwhile, orders and production of new airliners at Airbus and Boeing have plummeted. The long-term outlook for aircraft orders in the future haven’t yet factored in a post-pandemic world.

Nonetheless, it’s clear the financial ripple effect from the nearly simultaneous retirement of so many aircraft will amount to a significant revenue loss for European MROs.

Doyle said the increased retirement of older planes will result in a glut of surplus material hitting the market. “This will lead to a devaluation of the assets on the books of many MROs and airlines and a premature obsolescence of tooling and inventory.”

However, as European COVID-19 cases began to decrease this summer, some European airlines returned more aircraft to service. Lufthansa for example reported in June that 50 percent of its fleet is back in the air. Air France says it plans to return to 60 percent by the end of 2020.

“The depth of the crisis is not yet known,” says Johann Panier, senior vice president Business Development, Air France Industries-KLM Engineering & Maintenance. “But it will depend on several factors, including the reduction in flight hours, fleet management and optimization of maintenance actions, the accelerated transition to new generation aircraft, but also possible bankruptcies or attritions.”

New Ideas

So, what can be done? European MROs are using a mix of traditional cost-saving methods and outside-the-box ideas to battle these historic conditions.

Tried-and-true tactics include freezing new hires, cutting spending and reducing staff work hours.

Vilnius, Lithuania-based FL Technics CEO Zilvinas Lapinskas said his company has reduced hours for some employees and divided technicians and other workers into two shifts – two days on and two days off.

In addition, FL Technics’ Vilnius workforce of 800 has been cut by 60, Lapinskas said. Some salaries have been cut 15-20 percent.

Other MROs say they’re canceling or postponing plans to buy big-ticket inventory items such as spare engines. Some, including Estonia’s Magnetic MRO, have quickly renegotiated terms and conditions with suppliers.

In addition, Magnetic MRO has been finding new ways to work.

The company has launched a virtual aircraft inspection program, which allows clients access to any necessary information without physically being on site. The process uses video, the internet and a “structured file” system “allowing a potential customer to efficiently locate and analyze” any section of an aircraft.

‘It’s Working’

At the outset of the COVID-19 lockdown, Storm Aviation, an international line maintenance and training provider based in the Diamond Hangar Aviation Hub at London Stansted Airport, began putting resources into its internal IT infrastructure. With in-person meetings and collaboration nearly impossible, Storm relies on virtual meetings to keep productivity on track.

“As a result, we communicate more now and have better cross-interaction between departments,” said Storm Aviation CEO Thomas Buckley. “Every day at 9:15 and 4 o’clock the senior management team gets together, meets on screen and we run through what we’re doing, what we’re planning on doing, and thoughts and ideas for the short, medium and long-term. And it’s working.”

Temporary P2F

COVID-19 has already changed the marketplace and some European MROs have quickly responded by evolving their available services to meet the need.

For example, in May, Lufthansa Technik announced it had received interest from more than 40 airlines looking for expertise to temporarily convert cabin space in passenger airliners so they could safely carry cargo. As a result, Lufthansa Technik began offering a temporary P2F service program, including helping customers obtain necessary certification.

“There was no need for such a temporary modification before,” says Lufthansa Technik’s Henning Jochmann, senior director aircraft modification base maintenance.

A key reason behind this emerging customer need: a decline in available air freight capacity. The pandemic disrupted the air freight market by lowering the amount of available cargo space in the bellies of passenger airliners. As passenger flights decreased, so did available belly space. In addition, cargo normally transported aboard passenger planes began shifting to freight airlines — helping that sector remain strong despite the pandemic.

“The missing belly capacity due to the significant reduced passenger flights is the main driver for the additional need,” Jochmann said.

Magnetic MRO and AFI KLM have also begun offering passenger-to-freighter modifications. AFI KLM offers two options. Airlines can use their current cabin and only apply minor changes, or they can choose to remove the seats for a cargo configuration.

Big Data

Another way European MROs are rallying to fight the pandemic is by growing their existing internet-based revenue streams, such as data products.

Digital analytics platforms aimed at increasing business efficiency and saving money on airline operations will gain value in times like these. They provide convenient ways for airlines to review their procurement strategies, find places to trim budgets and opportunities to gain more independence from OEMs.

Products like Lufthansa Technik’s Aviatar gather massive amounts of airline data and crunch the numbers. Solutions garnered from the data promise to optimize hours of equipment operation, suggest significant cost-cutting strategies and implement additional safety considerations.

Predictive maintenance tools such as AFI KLM’s PROGNOS for Inventory can have a positive impact on the supply chain. “As we can predict the needs of components, we can adjust the numbers of parts and where it is valuable to place them,” AFIKLM E&M’s Panier said. PROGNOS “capitalizes on the vast amount of data generated by the Air France and KLM fleets.” When solutions and innovations are developed, their relevance and operational performance are verified before they are shared with customers.

Ideally these MRO data-crunching products monitor multiple systems and fleet management apps and provide operators with critical notifications that ultimately reduce flight cancellations and delays by using predictive maintenance algorhythms.

Lufthansa Technik’s Doyle said the company’s investment in digital technologies and platforms is paying off despite the crisis. “These look like the strongest growth areas in our portfolio in the current environment,” Doyle said.

Government Support

Early in 2020, when airline capacity initially plummeted, most European governments responded by offering financial support for airlines and MROs, including subsidizing employee payrolls.

“The vast majority of our engineering and front-line staff are in this furlough scheme,” said Storm Aviation CEO Buckley. “That gives us a little bit of breathing space.”

Industry experts, including Marcel Versteeg, owner of Netherlands-based VZM Management Services, warn of a possible labor shortage. The worry is that some MROs may panic and order excessive layoffs. “A significant number of European MRO staff include technicians who are approaching retirement age,” Versteeg said.

He says managers may want to consider relying on attrition to reduce the workforce. Resisting the urge to pull the trigger on widespread layoffs may be the best decision in the long term, because in a worst-case scenario, MROs could find themselves without enough staff to quickly snap back when business levels return to more nominal levels (for more info on this concern, see “Workforce Challenges” story on page 26 of this issue).

Magnetic MRO says its business has been hit significantly. “We had to reduce our headcount by 22 percent,” said Inga Duglas, Magnetic MRO commercial director. “Nevertheless we believe we still have a strong team to pick up and bring the company through this turbulence.”

She expects Magnetic MRO to return to pre-COVID-19 capacity by late 2021. “However, our ultimate goal is to keep growing and expanding our business, regardless of what else this new reality will bring,” Duglas said.

Buckley expects employment levels to remain steady at Storm Aviation through 2020. The company’s current headcount totals around 200. “Their locations may be different,” Buckley said, “but from an organizational size point of view, we won’t be too dissimilar as we are today.”

Global Connections

Experts and industry leaders agree a key factor in making it through these trying times will be global business. European MROs with customers outside the region are going to be better positioned to succeed.

Storm Aviation — a subsidiary of Avia Solutions Group — operates out of 15 permanent locations worldwide, including Bangladesh and Africa. Customers include more than 40 airlines, such as easyJet, Emirates, KLM Royal Dutch Airlines and Lufthansa. “A good, diverse spread of locations and airlines doesn’t eradicate all the risk,” said Storm CEO Buckley, “but it certainly does spread and mitigate it across a wider field.”

In Germany, Lufthansa Technik’s Doyle agreed. “We are recording significant workload declines in various business fields and regions,” he said, “but at the same time business is slowly recovering in other areas and different parts of the world, e.g. in Asia.”

NAVEO aerospace analyst Brown also sees the trend. “As traffic improves in Asia — particularly in Singapore, South Korea and China — some of these airlines are sending their maintenance or their components and engines to Europe,” Brown said.

Buyer’s Market?

Perhaps more important than globalization or size is the factor of financial liquidity. Smaller European MROs may be able to survive with the help of a diverse customer base and widespread locations. But the ability to provide enough cash when necessary is crucial.

The importance of liquidity is a factor as European MRO suppliers change their prices and terms in response to the pandemic economy.

“We’re already seeing price changes on certain things,” said Buckley at Storm Aviation. “Credit lines are changing with companies we have good long-term relations with. Sixty-day invoice terms are dropping down to thirty. Some companies are even requiring prepayment. This is all just for them to keep their liquidity. Suppliers are suffering because their cash flow is severely impacted.”

Buckley fears even liquidity may not be enough for some “mom-and-pop” or family-owned MROs that lack customer diversity as well as widespread locations and the ability to react quickly.

“They might be family-owned or a company with a couple of partners who’ve built something up over the years,” Buckley said. “If they haven’t run it as a business for growth — perhaps running it as more of a life-style supporter — they will struggle.”

As FL Technics’ CEO Lapinskas put it: “Competition is higher in Europe. It’s not so easy to predict who will die and who will survive. We are an independent MRO,” Lapinskas adds. “We don’t have an airline behind us. We have to fight for our customers every day. You have to be fast and cost effective. It’s in our DNA.”

Eventually, as airlines learn to operate with significantly less annual base maintenance, heavy maintenance and light base maintenance, Buckley predicts MROs will become a buyer’s market. “Some of the smaller organizations may not be able to keep up,” he said. “They might not have enough economy of scale to compete — assuming they’ve got the liquidity to make it thru this period.”

Indeed, independent line maintenance MROs are threatened by reduced airline operations, according to VZM’s Market Outlook 2020. The VZM report also says the current environment is also generating increased global interest in potential mergers and acquisitions for line maintenance MROs.

Changing World

Aviation industry leaders, including European MRO chiefs, have found themselves facing perhaps the most challenging crisis of their careers, an unpredictable market, hobbled by a fearsome pandemic, is now forcing them to make huge decisions affecting their labor forces, their inventories and their services which may be little more than calculated rolls of the dice.

Many in the industry believe much of the future hinges on when a successful vaccine can be developed and distributed. Because the way forward includes so many unknown variables, a timeline to success is virtually anybody’s guess. “Our own scenario planning confirms the market view that a recovery to 2019 MRO volumes will be reached again in 2023,” said Doyle at Lufthansa Technik.

Brown expects global passenger airline capacity to follow a similar path. In 2021 it will “rebound relatively strongly” recovering between 71-82 percent of 2019’s annual peak. Global passenger traffic won’t reach 2019 levels until at least 2023 or 2024, Brown predicts.

If you think finding a successful vaccine will bring the industry back to the days before COVID-19, Buckley would disagree. “I don’t think the vaccine is the silver bullet at all,” said Buckley. “The world is changing. If a pandemic can happen once, it will happen again. I think people’s lives, people’s attitudes, people’s businesses will now change in a wholly different direction. And I think the world will continue in that direction.”

Many analysts and industry leaders say they’re optimistic about the future, including Lapinskas at FL Technics. “I don’t know when things will get better,” he said. “But I believe in the autumn we will see a clearer picture of what is going on.”

“The aviation industry has seen this kind of thing before,” Brown said. “It’s an industry that is used to a crisis. Many people in the MRO industry, if not most, are engineers. They’re fact-based, process people. They take a situation and they deal with it. Because that’s what we do as engineers. We find solutions.”

Those who think the pandemic-induced drop in both activity and revenues for the maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) industry have ended the industry’s workforce shortage are dead wrong and, in fact, some experts predict it will be further exacerbated by emerging technologies.

“We were in a labor shortage pre-COVID-19 and this current situation isn’t going to fix that,” Duncan Aviation President Jeff Lake tells Aviation Maintenance. “We anticipate that once conditions improve, the industry will once again have a crunch on high-quality candidates. The aviation industry needs to continue to focus on marketing and educating young people to attract them to career opportunities we provide.”

Indeed, experts queried by Aviation Maintenance magazine predict accelerated retirement and emerging technologies could make that shortage more acute once Covid-19 is behind us.

In the meantime, they see less destruction than anticipated. However, they worry about losing talent to other industries, that initiatives to attract youngsters to the discipline will falter and about antiquated regulations that leave aviation maintenance students unprepared for today’s demands much less those of the future. And, of course, they worry about being paid.

The Aeronautical Repair Station Association (ARSA) conducted a survey in June to better understand the economic and workforce challenges the pandemic has created for the industry. (See sidebar)

“We’ve heard from many members that their customers – both airlines and general aviation operators – have stopped paying even for work that was done before the pandemic started,” says ARSA Executive Vice President Christian Klein. “That ripples through industry and is compounded by rising costs owing to sanitization, new protective equipment, safety measures, social distancing and moving to shifts.

“The survey is not final, but it gives you a sense that, while it is really terrible out there, it is not an absolute bloodbath…at least not yet. It’s amazing to think that prior to March 13, we had large number of members turning away customers owing to the workforce shortage.”

In fact, ARSA estimated its members were potentially foregoing as much as $1.4 billion in business annually for lack of workers. For that reason, ARSA is at the forefront of initiatives to boost the ranks of maintenance technicians. The industry developed impressive programs to attract young people. Congress funded a new grant program, proposed by ARSA, to help attract and retain technicians. New internships, scholarships and apprenticeship programs were being offered.

Efforts to boost interest in the profession were paying off, according to Aviation Technician Education Council (ATEC), the other leading force in workforce development.

“More individuals achieved FAA mechanic certification in 2019 than in any of the previous 17 years,” it reported in its 2020 Pipeline Report, its survey of Part 147 schools done before the pandemic. “The agency issued 7,363 certificates last year, the largest number since 2002, and a near 10 percent increase over 2018. A&P school enrollments also grew by 2 percent, the biggest jump in five years. AMT school respondents estimate that only 8 percent of 2018 graduates took jobs outside aviation, down from 13 percent in 2017 and 20 percent in 2016. More good news: 81 percent 2018 graduates took the FAA test for A&P mechanic certification, a jump of 10 basis points in each of the last two years. The number of certificated mechanics has steadily increased 1-2 percent a year since 2001, with 2019 seeing its biggest jump in recent years at 3 percent.”

Technical high schools report an uptick in interest with far more applicants than spaces as parents realize such an education could be part of a strategy to pay for college. Many graduate with an A&P license, joining the workforce while attending college. Employers are also offering tuition benefits.

Still, the Pipeline Report indicated two out of every five A&P seats at AMT schools remain open meaning more needs to be done to boost the image of the career from wrench-turner to the analytical technician it really is.

Klein worries, as happened after the Great Recession, workers would not be enthusiastic about returning to industries that laid them off because there are other sectors where technicians are in high demand. This challenges industry to develop a separation package that will make laid off workers want to return.

“Airlines and MROs alike will need to consider how to maintain the existing talent in the market, so whenever the industry finally begins to get back on its feet the necessary experienced personnel are there to support renewed growth,” Oliver Wyman counseled in its latest Market Outlook update.

By the Numbers

Everyone is familiar with Boeing’s Pilot and Technician Outlook predicting the need for 769,000 maintenance technicians by 2038 and it would be surprising if its latest forecast, due out in July, changes that.

“Mechanics are still retiring faster than they are being replaced; new entrants make up 2 percent of the population annually, while 33 percent of the workforce is at or near retirement age and over 60,” says the ATEC report, foreshadowing the number that could take the early-retirement packages being offered. “The industry will need to produce an additional 2,700 mechanics annually over its 2019 output to meet the 20-year demand.”

The report cautioned that new mechanics addressed new demand instead of replacing retiring mechanics.

“At current certification rates, the mechanic population is expected to increase 12 percent over the next 20 years, but still fall 79,000 mechanics short of projected needs by 2039,” says the report.

Today’s Hiring Opportunities

While the report reflected the industry before the pandemic, Executive Director Crystal Maguire says this is no time to curtail your education given the return on investment resulting from an AMT education.

“The average A&P student is in school for 21 months and pays $16,321 in tuition,” says ATEC. “The average starting annual pay for a certificated mechanic is $45,000 and rising.”

Indeed, Ken Herbert, managing director at Canaccord Genuity Inc. indicated the dramatic decline in revenues does not necessarily mean an equal decline in workforce,

Jeff Richards, JS Firm operations manager says the industry is still hiring and candidates should be updating resumes. The company is offering a series of webinars for job seekers to help navigate this unprecedented time.

“Hiring is all over the map,” Richards tells Aviation Maintenance. “Some days are good and some bad. My bigger fear is losing techs to non-aviation companies as we saw a decade ago when people left for wind turbines and high-speed trains. Our technicians are highly sought after. This will have a dramatic impact which will strain workforce availability as we come out of the recession.”

Mike Challey, Aviation Technical Services vice president marketing agrees. “There is still a need for qualified aircraft technicians,” he says, noting his company connects structure technicians with MRO/airline employers. “I don’t see that going away.”

So does Duncan’s Lake. “We are still open at all of our main facilities, avionics satellites, and engine rapid response launch locations,” he says. “Our facilities are operating at full staff, and we are staying busy. COVID has not had a significant effect yet on our workforce numbers. Our contingency plan and cost-saving measures have so far been enough to allow us to avoid reductions in force. Our employee numbers have not changed significantly. We saw business levels and corresponding revenue drop, but not as significantly as we feared.”

Duncan focuses on business aviation and Lake noted some operators continued to fly and some even saw an increase in flying as airlines shut down. Some have opted to move maintenance and other aircraft projects up in the schedule to ensure they are ready to respond to flight needs.

“When the necessary travel restrictions are lifted, business aviation will lead us through the coming economic and societal challenges by providing necessary travel in smaller environments where people will feel safe while traveling,” he says.

Alton Aviation Consultancy Managing Director Jonathan Berger put shortages in perspective. “There are different segments to the industry,” he tells Aviation Maintenance. “It is not a huge monolith. There was no shortage in engine maintenance and at OEMs and [major] airlines haven’t had trouble hiring. That is over 40 percent of MRO with component shops accounting for another 20 percent. Airline line maintenance is another 20 percent. So, it is really the heavy airframe business that had hiring issues. North America has the most issues with labor shortages.”

But, says ARSA’s Klein, there are six times more technicians working at repair stations than there are mechanics working at airlines.

“Almost 288,000 Americans support aviation maintenance and manufacturing, producing more than $52 billion in economic activity each year,” ARSA wrote in April. “FAA-certificated repair stations are the largest employers with almost 194,000 people at work in their U.S. facilities.”

That is why it continues its legislative and regulatory efforts to boost the ranks. Congress provided full funding for a new aviation technician workforce development program. Spearheaded by ATEC, bipartisan legislation is also moving through Congress to reform Part 147 curricula to force a reluctant FAA to address reform

“We need to get the grant programs up and running,” Klein says. “That money is even more valuable now and could provide opportunities to take on laid-off workers. We need to update the regulations covering the curricula at AMT schools which date to the 1970s and are completely ossified and out of step with how and what should be taught. If you’re looking for a way to make industry more efficient, this would do it. There is also legislation to create public-private partnerships to make is easier for aerospace and MRO repair stations to retain workers.”

Indeed, Stephen Ley, associate professor, Utah Valley University School of Aviation Sciences, suggests the industry was so focused on the acute needs, future needs, urban mobility, unmanned cargo and commercial space, aren’t yet on the radar.

More importantly, he tells Aviation Maintenance, these technologies have not stopped with the pandemic. They continue to test, continue to be certificated such as the Pipistrel electric aircraft. MagniX has already converted Harbour Air aircraft to its electric engine and its electric Caravan just took its maiden flight. Sabrewing just rolled out its Rhaegal unmanned cargo aircraft.

“This will change how MRO is delivered,” says Ley. “UAM will need mechanics on site. Shipping a vehicle to the OEM or repair facilities is not practical. They need instantaneous repair because their business model is on demand. These aircraft are a massive gamechanger driving up the number of A&P technicians required to work on composites, electrical components and who can work on airframe and powerplants but also avionics. We will see a greater need for skills that integrate everything.”

Ley already integrated these new technologies into his coursework creating research projects to answer many of the questions remaining about the integration of this technology.

Quantifying Pandemic Impact

“The current trajectory for fleet reductions and lower aircraft utilization would reduce global MRO demand in 2020 by over $26 billion, or almost 30 percent with no global growth in MRO until 2022,” says Oliver Wyman in its update to the ARSA-sponsored MRO Market Outlook produced in February. “North America and Western Europe would suffer the largest impact and independent MROs are most at risk.”

“Pre-COVID, we forecast global commercial MRO to be $91.2B for 2020. The market is expected to incur a 53percent decrease from that forecast to $42.7B in 2020. For the last five years annual retirements have ranged from 550 to 750 planes, we expect to see a surge to well over 2,600 during the next 12 months.”

“I believe, we are on the edge of a technological explosion of new technologies and modalities of air passenger and cargo transportation which will lead to opportunities for new career entry, growth, and advancement,” he says. “In addition, we are on the edge of an explosion in space transportation which will also require robust MRO capabilities. integrate autonomous, UAM and space into an A&P program.”

He believes this will force a step change in qualifications and skillsets to bring them closer to industry needs and demands.

Duncan is already preparing. “We believe EVTOL and urban mobility will be a growth sector in the future,” says Lake. “There are numerous start-ups in this area and there are many who are willing to invest. The regulatory agencies have also been supportive of this new technology. [We will support] this new technology as a service and support organization. Our satellite network is a great conduit for supporting aircraft in the field. We’re a part of the RoboticSkies worldwide UAV service network already and are staying in touch with these industries to offer our services when/where the demand will be needed.”

But not in the next few years. “It is still struggling to build infrastructure,” cautioned Herbert. “I don’t see it pulling people away from traditional aircraft maintenance efforts because it will be several years for those business models to take off.”

Aviation’s digital transformation puts further pressure both on maintenance schools as well as companies who must transition workers for the digital information and artificial intelligence age, which requires retraining for much of the current workforce.

“Those technologies can help,” says Berger, “but I don’t see the business case in the near term because of the ROIC.”

However, Klein says companies are taking this opportunity to do more training to make them more productive and efficient.

“This is an opportunity for companies to become leaner and streamline their operations and ensure the workforce they have in place are their best workers,” he says. “The industry has been slow to adopt technological advances, but the pandemic might provide the catalyst for remote connectivity and correcting other digital efficiencies.”

Berger sees acceleration of consolidation within the industry which could be hampered by the changing valuations of companies owing to the pandemic. As for opportunities, he cast back to 9/11.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a similar emergence of an aviation health industry as there was for aviation security,” he says. “I agree the burgeoning space tourism industry is also just starting with reusable rockets and boosters which means MRO work. I see MRO growing for urban mobility, but I don’t see it in the near term like the space industry.”

This makes ATEC’s effort to reform government-mandated education requirements that much more important as it continues efforts on the Promoting Aviation Regulations for Technical Training (PARTT) 147 Act

In addition to legislation, it created a new non-profit – Choose Aerospace – to develop high school aviation maintenance curricula. The organization is also focused on developing recruiting programs to attract more youngsters to the craft.

While the industry may be undergoing a dramatic downturn, there is widespread agreement that it is only temporary and, when it comes back, in just about the time it takes to complete A&P school, there will be more opportunities than ever.

At press time, ARSA’s member survey on the impact of COVID was incomplete, but the early results provide initial insights.

Scheduled for publication in July, the survey found more than three quarters of respondents have seen a decline in company revenues as a result of the pandemic and more than two thirds expect 2020 revenues to be below 2019.

“With those numbers in mind, it’s little surprise that approximately half of ARSA’s survey respondents have reduced workforce between January 1 and June 1, 2020,” says Christian Klein, ARSA executive vice president, who expects to see an aggregate drop of between 10 and 20 percent in the total number of employees when the final survey numbers are calculated,

He cautioned the association is still crunching numbers and determining whether the respondent pool is representative of the industry. However, he says that if you project a 15 percent decline in the workforce across the entire industry it could mean the loss of around 25,000 of the nearly 194,000 technicians who were working at repair stations as recently as early March, when ARSA and Oliver Wyman released their annual industry assessment.

And the numbers could worsen given that roughly a third of respondents are apparently considering additional workforce reductions.

“While the sector’s job losses are startling,” Klein says, “there are some silver linings. Access to credit doesn’t seem to be a problem, as it has been during past downturns. Also, the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) created by the CARES Act has also apparently helped, with roughly half of respondents having received forgivable PPP loans.

“Interestingly, more companies reported salary cuts to administration and management than tech personnel,” says Klein. “I’d like to believe it’s because management values its technical talent, but it could also be because technician jobs have simply been eliminated.”

But, Klein says, the full effects of the pandemic, and how long disruptions will continue, likely won’t be known for a long time.

“One of the biggest challenges for our members is the uncertainly,” Klein adds. “It’s hard to plan when you don’t know things will return to pre-pandemic levels. Around a quarter of our respondents are saying it’ll be before the end of the year but almost as many think it will be sometime after the beginning of 2022. And close to 20 percent of the folks we’ve heard from so far admitted they had no idea.”

Similarly, schools are expecting a decline in enrollment, according to a recent ATEC survey.

Some 60 percent of schools expected graduations to decline by 28 percent and, enrollments in 2020/21 by 31percent. Pre-pandemic, 60 percent of 2020 grads were expected to have a job but that is down to 45 percent since December.

The majority of schools report a hybrid curriculum — a combination of online and in-school instruction with 15 percent reporting they have suspended operations completely. Nearly half of schools say they are completing labs in person with a similar percentage indicating they are not facilitating labs. The majority of schools see labs as their biggest challenge.

Satisfying FAA requirements is seen as the second biggest challenge and more than 50 percent of schools expect to seek permanent approval for distance learning. Indeed, ATEC continues to seek relief on short-term expiration of distance learning temporary authorization.

When there is a market downturn, business jet aircraft owners look to breathe new life into their asset. Or, instead of buying new, they might consider a used aircraft and then take it in to personalize it. Air medical operators — so important in the current health crisis — are actively considering future projects. We talked to some key players in the mod market to see what interesting modifications they have recently made.

Ff there was ever a time for mods, it’s now. Refurbishing a used airplane is a bargain compared to buying a new one.

Modifications come in all shapes and sizes. Air purification is popular at the moment. Re-engining mods are also selling. And interior work to boost comfort and convenience is always in demand. More specialized, air medical conversions are particularly relevant at this time.

Sales of new aircraft will be “a little bit muted for a while” but there may be a “bump” in the purchase of used planes, predicts Marc Drobny, president, business aviation, with StandardAero. The downturn encourages people to hang on to their airplanes longer and to spend money to breathe new life into them or to buy a used aircraft and make it look brand-new.

As the virus affects all facets of life, “we are seeing people don’t really want to ride the airlines,” observes Jim Allmon, president and CEO of Blackhawk Aerospace, which designs and sells engine replacement programs. If they can afford it, they are buying airplanes, especially turboprops, which probably have a little better optics as corporate aircraft than jets, he says. A lot are first-time buyers, pushed into the market by the virus, but others are moving up from piston-engine airplanes. While business is off from 2019, people are still ordering engine upgrades. “It’s better than we expected it to be,” he says.

StandardAero

“We can do anything…to the inside of a plane,” Drobny, says, including seating, storage, cabinets, carpets, sidewall materials, galleys, and lavs. As far as the exterior goes, “we’re not going to lengthen the fuselage” but can do painting and winglets.

StandardAero does air purification mods. “We’ll see if this turns out to be of passing interest or if it turns into a fad,” Drobny says. The MRO uses the ACA air purification system, which interfaces with the existing heating/ventilation system. It works electronically to create positive and negative ions from the hydrogen and oxygen molecules in the water vapor present in the air, according to ACA. These ions cluster around micro particles, mold spores, viruses, and bacteria, effectively “inactivating” them, ACA says.

The MRO also installs winglets. For a couple hundred thousand dollars you can decrease fuel consumption by five percent per hour, Drobny says. StandardAero has performed this upgrade on multiple Falcon types, Learjets, Citations, Hawkers, and Challengers.

Air Medical

Hillaero Modification Center, Elliott Aviation, and StandardAero do air medical mods. Hillaero recently completed a fleet of King Air B200 conversions for use in Alberta. Each cabin is equipped with rotating medical crew seating, a parallel overhead track system with “no-tools” sliding adapters, and sidewall-mounted medical gas outlets, says company president, Carol Swigart. This configuration also features a single-patient LifePort PLUS unit — the base and stretcher system — and an aft storage compartment outfitted with shelves and a cargo net to hold all carry-on equipment securely for taxi, takeoff, and landing. “A TDFM radio in the cabin sidewall provides an effective conduit for air-to-ground medical communication,” she says.

Typically we won’t have to strengthen the flooring or substructure unless it’s a heavier mod, explains Adam Doyle, paint interior sales representative with Elliott Aviation. He recalls a Hawker 800XP air medical mod that involved removing the left-hand forward galley and installing it in the back of the plane. This made it easier to get patients in and out of the aircraft, he says. The company reinforced the aircraft structure to support that function in its new location.

The MRO also can add communications devices in the aft of the airplane. Some operators have very specific ways of cutting certain individuals on and off and of controlling what’s said and heard through various communications, Doyle says.

StandardAero also does air medical mods. The Hawker 800 is a pretty popular platform, Drobny says. The airplanes tend to be 10 to 20 years old. Work might involve cutting a new door, installing electrical connections, and adding support equipment.

By contrast, 25 to 30 percent of Hillaero’s air medical mods involve new airplanes, Swigart says. “Some hospitals may have made a significant investment and may want new or newer airframes.” Some operators, for example, might buy a King Air in a cargo configuration — with no seating — and start from there.

What’s Involved

The conversion of a used business aircraft starts with the client’s selection of the stretcher platform they’re going to use – from one of the air medical suppliers such as Spectrum Aeromed or LifePort, Swigart explains. This structure, to which the stretcher is attached, supports the loads to hold the patient securely during flight. Medical supplies such as oxygen can also be accessed through the bottom of the base.

Hillaero develops the floor plan, including items such as seating and storage cabinets, to operator requirements. One Hillaero specialty is an overhead track system to help position medical equipment, such as ventilators and defibrillators that come on and off of the airplane with the patient.

The overhead track system consists of two parallel tracks installed in the headliner and tied structurally to the airframe, Swigart explains. The system “is substantiated to hold 25 pounds every 20 inches.” A sliding no-tools adapter enables the user to position the medical equipment directly over the patient, as needed, with a simple quarter-turn knob. A typical configuration would feature three adapters per patient location. Hillaero offers a full line of medical equipment enclosures that lock into the sliding adapters. “We have sold the entire system — including the track kit and enclosures — to other modification centers,” she says.

Elliott Aviation has modified King Airs, Beechjets, Citations, Pilatus PC-12s, and Hawker 800XPs, Doyle says. The company, for example, can reconfigure interiors, remove and replace seating, install units that hold stretchers and contain medical oxygen and air, add mission-specific avionics, modify the baggage compartment, add specialized storage space, and apply antimicrobial materials. The MRO also has made a unit that transports an ECMO system. (ECMO, which stands for Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation, functions like an artificial heart and lungs.)

Hillaero has converted pre-owned and new PC-12s and has supported Pilatus on parts and designs for PC-24 conversion. The company also has completed the first in a series of three HondaJets and is talking with the OEM about future direct partnerships, Swigart says. It has converted a lot of King Airs and Citations.

Conversion of a used aircraft could take six to 10 weeks, Swigart says. Designing the layout, installing the wiring and seating, custom-building the cabinets, and then painting the exterior take time. The cost of an air medical mod can range from $200,000 to $1 million.

Engine Replacement

Blackhawk Aerospace has developed programs for the King Air 90, 200, 300, and 350 series, the Cessna Caravan, Piper Cheyenne, and Cessna Conquest, the company says. It typically designs and sells upgrades, relying on its 80 dealers to perform the installations. Blackhawk has sold some 890 engine upgrade programs since opening for business in 1999. It is Pratt & Whitney’s top buyer in the non-OEM world of new turboprop engines.

It’s generally cheaper to overhaul than to replace engines but that won’t increase performance. The company’s King Air 350 program, for example, can transform a 300-knot turboprop into an up-to-335-knot “jet-performing-type” airplane, Allmon says. The company has sold about 35 King Air 350 programs since it got the STC a couple years ago.

An engine upgrade improves an operator’s mission profile, Allmon says. Some sky dive operators, for example, are grounding their big Twin Otters because they have fewer jumpers. “A lot are scaling down to Caravans and like our engine upgrade because it improves their profitability quite a bit.”

P&W also gives Blackhawk customers “core credits” for time remaining. On the King Air 350 it’s $70 per hour, which adds up to $140,000 off the top if there are 1,000 hours on the engines, he says.

How It’s Done

One Blackhawk dealer, Augsburg Air Service (AAS) in Germany, performs Blackhawk-designed engine replacements on King Air C90s and B200s, says Florian Kohlmann, managing director. Benefits include new Pratt & Whitney-warrantied engines, increased airspeed, increased rate of climb, increased single-engine service ceiling, decreased time and fuel to climb, lower maintenance cost, and increased resale value, according to Blackhawk.

Some of the steps that AAS performs in re-engining the King Air C90 under Blackhawk’s XP135A program include removing the original Pratt & Whitney PT6A-21 engines; non-destructive testing of the engine truss mounts; installation of new P&W PT6A-135 engines provided by Blackhawk; removal and replacement of the special oil used during engine storage; modifying the flight instruments or installing Blackhawk gauges, optionally; and modifying the starter, as required. Kohlmann also notes the Enhanced New-Engine Warranty of 2,500 hours/5 years with prorated coverage to the 3,600-hour TBO. The 2019 total cost of the AAS King Air C90 engine replacement upgrade under Blackhawk’s XP135A program was about $770,000.

The engine upgrade takes two to three weeks, Kohlmann says. Customers often combine an engine upgrade with a Raisbeck propeller upgrade, which would add about a week to the job, he says. Only the cores go back to Blackhawk. Some of the accessories are provided new with the new engines while others can be outsourced to overhaul facilities.

Falcon Storage Makeover

The front lav space on some Falcon 900 and 2000 aircraft is often used as a “makeshift storage compartment,” says Tracey Boesch, senior completions sales rep for Duncan Aviation. It’s “a lot like your closet at home. If you just stack and throw things in there, things aren’t tidy or organized and the space is not maximized.”

The MRO designed a conversion of this space so that it can function as a customized storage cabinet, coat closet, or a combination of the two. Duncan Aviation has modified five aircraft so far. “We capped all the lines from the toilet and built a cabinet insert that molded around the old chute just in case the next owner wants to reinstate the lavatory,” Boesch says.

“The initial Falcon 900 customer requested a large ice drawer in the bottom and a coat closet up top, but the space looks a bit like a soda bottle, so it took a bit of finagling to ensure every square inch was used.”

The initial Falcon 2000 customer requested a cold catering box storage, crew closet, upper storage and a lower drawer, as well as tasks such as a partial paint, left-hand entertainment cabinet mod, and the addition of a passenger coat closet.

These modifications, along with a full interior refurbishment, take 10-12 weeks. “It’s all new construction and each one is somewhat different and customized,” Boesch says. The job requires engineering and construction, as well as finishing and reinstallation.

Auto-throttle

Banyan Air Service highlights its recent installation of the IS&S ThrustSense Auto-Throttle system, American Aviation Speed Cowl, and the Luminary Cabin Comfort System on a Pilatus PC-12NG. The project involved removing the interior, installing the cabin comfort system, and then reinstalling the interior, says Paul Rose, Banyan’s vice president of technical sales. The job, including an annual maintenance check, took three weeks.

The auto-throttle system helps lower the pilot workload by computing the thrust and holding selected speed/torque while implementing the appropriate temperature and torque limit protection. The system computes and controls torque during all flight phases, including climb.

The Speed Cowl system creates a more aerodynamic façade, which features a cowl inlet that captures 100 percent of the dynamic air pressure, improving engine performance. And the Luminary acoustic and thermal insulation package reduces overall cabin and cockpit noise levels by 25 percent.

LED Lighting

“If you want a system that’s cheaper than white-light-only, is easy to use, and adds a ‘wow factor,’” Elliott Technologies’ PRIZM upgrade could be the ticket, says Tim Lockerby, product sales manager with the Elliott Aviation subsidiary. The app-controllable LED-color lighting upgrade also enhances the airplane’s resale value, he says.

There are millions of colors to choose from. You can customize the colors of the upwash, downwash, and floor lighting, for example, and save your configuration. Ditto for the galley and lav. Especially appealing to prospective customers are the customized, edge-lighted cup holders with company logos, he says. You can even adjust the look of the white light to be warm or cool. It’s “extremely easy to use,” Lockerby says. “All of these functions can be controlled right from any carry-on device…at the press of a button on a phone or from a switch in the cabin.”

PRIZM was developed as an exclusive offering, but in the last six months it has been expanded to about a dozen dealers, such as Banyan Air Service, Duncan Aviation, Constant, and West Star. Fifteen to 16 airplanes are flying with the system so far, he says, including King Airs, Citations, and Hawkers.

Elliott Technologies has made some tweaks during the slowdown. Boot time for the controller box has dropped from 30 seconds to 10 seconds and the transition between colors is smoother.

The mod is typically done along with an inspection or other interior work. The panels typically are removed and the controller box can be installed under the floor boards. Elliot’s LED strips can be up to 16 feet long, which makes installation easier and helps avoid gaps in the lighting.

Complexity varies with the size of the plane. A Gulfstream GIV, for example, can be configured with multiple, passenger-controlled lighting zones.

Most of the aviation industry pundits are predicting a U-shaped rebound of the industry, which means a prolonged, stretched, slow recovery. As of today, more than 50 percent of commercial aircraft are parked, the number of people flying in the U. S. is down by 85 percent compared to last year this time and IATA forecasts a 70 percent year-over-year fall in RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometer) by end of this quarter. By end of this year, in my view, we will start to see a glimpse of recovery in the commercial aviation industry, where people will gain a bit of confidence to go back to airports, taking planes for domestic and international travels. The role of 21st Century Technologies (like IoT, AI, ML) and biometrics, in gaining passenger confidence, improving operational efficiencies (of airports, airlines, aerospace and defense, equipment manufacturers, supply chain) and in the overall recovery of the commercial aviation industry will be more crucial than ever before.

For the past decade, 21st century technologies such as Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML) have dominated conversations in the tech world. A report by Market Research Future published that the value of the Global Aviation IoT market could increase by reaching $25B by 2023. Such growth is expected to rise at a healthy pace by recording a massive CAGR of 16 percent from 2018 to 2023. The question that comes to mind is, “Will this trend going to change in the post-COVID world?” In my view, the answer is “no,” and the adoption of new technology in the aviation industry will accelerate in the post-COVID world. Historically, the aviation industry has been a laggard industry, when it comes to new technology adoption.

In the pre-COVID world, smart airports and manufacturers of smart planes were looking forward to deploying the latest IoT technology to deliver delightful passenger experiences, and make up losses in the business by bringing in operational efficiencies, lowering AOG (Aircraft on Ground) time, generating ancillary revenues and safety. However, in the post-COVID world, the most important thing is to increase passenger confidence, bring people back to the airports, planes, and have them fly safely from point A to point B. All other factors like passenger experience, ancillary revenue, operational efficiencies will revolve around passenger safety and hygiene.

In the post-COVID world, I believe, IoT solutions around the following four key elements would be key to the success of an Airport, an Airliner, and an A&D Equipment Manufacturer. These four things are, 1. Connected User; 2. Connected Products; 3. Connected Infrastructure and 4. Connected Operations.

An IoT platform and data analytics solutions that provides a foundation to build quick solutions for around these areas, based on their specific use case will be crucial.

1. Connected User: This entails aligning IOT solutions like App-based PAX tracking, Proximity Alert, Location Services, Passenger Biometric and Health vitals. This also includes cabin operational insight on seat occupancy metrics, passenger comfort metrics (based on posture recognition, and derive passenger comfort score) with real-time flow of user information, so that companies can offer new type of services based on innovative commercial models. HCL’s Biometric ID Management enables use of Touchless Biometric ID to verify identity and manage workflows in an airport, operations center, etc.

2. Connected Products: These include IoT-ized products like airport apps, staff devices and integration, gate access and facility access with features for monitoring. These features for monitoring go beyond just the primary functions, by providing access to real-time, accurate, ambient data and data about products’ performance. In addition to this, Inflight Entertainment (IFE) will change significantly by efficient delivery of content to PAX devices and integrating PAX handheld devices with the seatback IFE display (casting). Gesture-based, touchless IFE control would be of great value to keep passengers safe.

Cognitive Product for Human Experience using IoT: These include products that leverage IoT to transform Human Experience, enhance Situational Awareness, and Safety. A product like HCL’s Cognitive Product Solution enables mood and health detection in near real-time through analysis of facial reactions and human postures. The two top benefits to airlines are:

• Improved Customer Experience: Detailed and customized service offerings and interaction through analysis and detection of customer body posture and facial reactions.

• Health Safety: Enhanced safety regulations can be implemented in near real-time by using analytics in the Airport, inside the cabin and at seats to detect if the PAX is wearing masks, semi-restricted zones, any public areas, error prone work environments like cargo bay etc.

3. Connected Infrastructure – Enabling IOT applications – like connected entry, exit, security points, CUTE, CUSS Equipment and touchless boarding (from curbside to the gate) in the specialized airport and airplane environment, organizations can significantly increase safety of passengers and optimize their cost.

4. Connected Operations – IoT technology-based solution can certainly bring in huge operational efficiencies, enhanced customer or employee experience and improve safety. While these solutions do exist today in the commercial aviation industry, I think these solutions are not implemented in a large part of our commercial aviation industry and there is a lot of headroom available to upgrade existing legacy systems enabling enterprises to smoothen their business operation flow by minimizing wastage, total cost of ownership (TCO) and by running a lean operation. Few IoT applications such as data collection from terminal gates, Integrated supply chain optimization, operational data management and analysis, track and trace solutions should gain significant traction in the coming years.

Indoor Track and Trace Solution – Enabling in-premises location and path detection of assets/ people. There are a wide range of technological options including RFID, Wi-Fi, BLE, UWB, VLC/Li-Fi (among others) depending on specific application of use, including aggregation when tracking inventories at multiple levels of granularity. Few uses cases are tracking of tools inside hangar/MRO facilities, inside the aircraft, tracking of time sensitive materials like life vests, oxygen cylinders inside the cabin, inventory tracking inside the shop floor etc.

Outdoor Track & Trace Solution – Monitoring location, condition, and integrity of an asset outside the four walls. GPS-enabled asset monitoring device that provides asset location and condition information with global cellular connectivity and a long-lasting in-built battery, either at pre-determined time intervals or on-demand. A few use cases are — high valued tools movement outside the hangar, food tracking, baggage tracking, real time inventory tracking across supply chain for system manufacturers etc.

When it comes to machine learning/artificial intelligence in aviation, I would like to highlight the usage of AI/ML in RPA (Robotic Process Automation), which is very helpful to reduce back office operational cost for airlines, and airframe manufacturers by bringing them significant upfront savings. In the post-COVID world, saving cash will be of huge importance. Leveraging RPA/AI/ML to aviation client will be key. In line with the business process evolution and maturity, an automated rule-based, repetitive tasks in finance, accounting, and supply chain functions for aviation manufacturers is needed. For an aviation manufacturer, eliminating data entry in their accounts payable (AP) process by deploying RPA technologies will help. Further, a tool to digitize structured and unstructured data has been developed. HCL has a solution, Exacto, an intelligent character recognition (ICR) tool developed jointly with MIT to detect structured and unstructured data including handwritten images and digitize the data for downstream processing. For a leading Tier I aerospace engine manufacturer, automating the complete transactional procurement process has been accomplished. Processes such as PO placement, shipment tracking, price update in ERP, vendor inquiry, and AP helpdesk processes have been automated by deploying RPA technology.

In the last two decades, the aviation industry has survived two economic catastrophes — the 9/11 attack and the 2008 global financial crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 is the third and biggest economic catastrophe the industry has ever experienced. The recovery is going to be prolonged, but we believe it will be a solid recovery. 21st century technologies and biometrics will be at the forefront of this recovery and in shaping the future of aviation. In my view, this is the tipping point for the aviation industry. It will no longer be the laggard industry when it comes to new technology adaptation and by the end of this decade, we will see a rapid paradigm shift the way aircraft are built, airports are operated and the way we travel.

Sam Swaro is the associate vice president of HCL Technologies, a next-generation global technology company that helps enterprises reimagine their businesses for the digital age and is a member of the board of governors of the Aerospace Industries Association.

The aviation industry is facing a challenging time as travel restrictions persist and airplanes are grounded in an effort to stop the spread of COVID-19. According to fleet data estimates, approximately 9,000 aircraft are now in short-term parked status and more than 3,000 aircraft have been put in long-term storage worldwide.

As airlines grapple with an unprecedented number of grounded aircraft — and for an indeterminable amount of time — preventative maintenance is top of mind. Airlines likely find themselves dedicating an abundance of resources to keep parked aircraft in near ready-to-fly condition, and there are several factors airlines should remain mindful of to help ensure the right measures are taken to safely return planes to the skies when the time comes. Lubrication is one often overlooked but critical aspect.

This article explores lubricant considerations for grounded aircraft, and is intended to be an educational resource. It is essential that airlines follow the instructions included in aircraft OEM maintenance manuals.

Best Practice: Exercise the Engine

When an aircraft is parked for an extended period, there is increased risk for deterioration of its components and structure if preservation procedures are not followed. These procedures include everything from covering windows to preserve the inside of the aircraft, to setting up ventilation and dehumidifiers and covering gaps in the airframe to prevent birds from nesting in the engines.

Not to be overlooked, it is also important to consider “exercising” aircraft engines to bring the oil to operating temperature if possible. This is done to evaporate water and renew the film of protective additives on the surfaces of engine components, and is done weekly, or sometimes every two weeks.

Ester-based aviation turbine lubricants absorb water from the atmosphere at every opportunity. Water contamination will cause hydrolysis of the esters to occur, which forms acids likely to damage engine components. The longer the oil is exposed to the atmosphere, the more water it absorbs, increasing the risk of forming acids.

The rate of water contamination is also dependent on temperature and ambient humidity. Occasionally running engines while grounded can help evaporate the water, however, this alone may not be enough. And in some instances, exercising engines to bring oil to operating temperature might not be possible at all due to aircraft location, proximity to other aircraft, etc. It is important to periodically test the oil for water (ppm) and monitor total acid number (TAN) and compare these to the levels set by the engine OEM.

If the lubricant is contaminated with water for an extended period eventually the TAN value will exceed OEM recommended limits, indicating it is time to change the lubricant. Some engine OEMs have fluid condition limits that stipulate a water level less than 1000ppm, and a TAN of less than 2.0. These are good general guidelines, but airlines need to consult their engine manuals for specific guidance. It’s also worth noting that there is no “too low” figure. For instance, MJO II right out of the can will typically have around 200-300ppm.

Grease Storage and Distribution

Much like exercising the engines, maintenance technicians may exercise the wheels in order to avoid flat spots by moving the airplane. Rolling tires also renews the grease coating on the associated wheel bearing components, which helps protect the bearings. This is important because wheel bearings are only re-greased when completely removed from the aircraft. Moving the airplane also flexes the landing gear which renews oil and grease films on landing gear struts and linkages.

Additionally, knowing that the usage of greases decreases during prolonged aircraft downtime, it’s important for airlines to properly store their greases and be mindful of shelf-life and contamination warning signs. Here are some tips on how to effectively accomplish this:

• Grease containers should be stored indoors in dry, cool and clean environments with temperatures ranges from 0°C to 40°C (32°F to 104°F). If a stored grease is briefly exposed to severe temperatures or environmental conditions, technicians should consult their lubricant suppliers with concerns.

• If a grease container is opened, the grease needs to be used as soon as possible to avoid potential contamination or degradation — which is an added concern when aircraft are grounded.

Improper storage may lead to hydrolysis, a risk factor for grease just as it is for turbine oils. Some signs grease has been compromised include unusual darker color, abnormal consistency and a strong, unpleasant odor. Oil separation may also be observed, however, greases with normal bleed can easily be mixed back together. If there’s excessive oil bleed, the grease will harden and be unsuitable for use.

While proper storage can help prevent these compromises, maintenance technicians also need to be mindful of shelf life and whether a container is open already. Shelf life specifications can differ between aviation greases. The average industry shelf life of aviation greases is about three years; however, ExxonMobil’s Mobilgrease 33 and Mobilgrease™ 28 aviation greases offer extended shelf life for up to 10 years.

While aviation grease shelf life is listed as the “use by” date on the container, the listed shelf life recommendation for a grease is no longer applicable once the container is opened. Once opened, greases with ester base oils are vulnerable to hydrolysis from absorbed water contamination and should be used as quickly as possible. ExxonMobil’s Mobilgrease 33 and Mobilgrease 28 aviation greases do not have these oils and using these can ease concerns around grease degradation. Also keeping a lid on the opened grease container helps prevent the ingress of particulate contamination.

Additives for Deep Preservation

While airlines work to keep grounded aircraft parked only temporarily, some aircraft are being put in long-term storage, or deep preservation. Long-term preservation is normally done when there is no timeline to return an engine to service. This may mean the engine will be out-of-service for six months or longer, and this is often a permanent situation.

When preserving or “pickling” an engine, preservation additives need to be added to the lubricants to prevent corrosion. Adding a preservative chemical should be done with the water level and TAN in compliance with OEM guidelines.

Once the long-term preservative additive is mixed in the lubricant, the engine operation is typically limited by the OEM as the preservative may interfere with other lubricant additives and create less load-carrying, or more deposits forming. Generally, once the preservative gets mixed and circulated, the engine sits without being operated until it is about to be put back into service, whenever that may be. Airlines know best when it is appropriate for them to use preservation fluid in engines as the workload to get a preserved engine back to airworthy status is a significant task.

The Road to Recovery

In today’s environment, there are a lot of unknowns and this is especially true for the aviation industry. It could be that at some point a higher percentage of aircraft will be migrated from short-term storage to long-term preservation, and some will return to service. While much is unknown, airlines can maximize the effectiveness of their short-term storage effort by remaining mindful of lubricant-related risks, following OEM provided preservation requirements and taking the appropriate mitigation steps. These tips can also help ensure the airworthiness of an aircraft returned to service after extended downtime.

For anyone needing lubrication support during this time, ExxonMobil offers technical engineers to answer questions and provide support. You can contact ExxonMobil by visiting: https://www.exxonmobil.com/en/aviation/contact-us.